What To Do With Slow Starters?
Check the underlying numbers.
It is early but it’s also a short season. What should be done with early-season disappointments?
Sidney Crosby, C, Pittsburgh
(Preseason: 11, Current: 188)
4 G, 4 A in 10 GP
His shot rate (2.50 per game) is a career low, continuing a trend of recent seasons but he also has a very low on-ice shooting percentage (6.6 OiSH% at evens) that is very likely to get better.
Mika Zibanejad, C, N.Y. Rangers
(Preseason: 13, Current: 308)
1 G, 2 A in 10 GP
Ice cold percentages but still generating 3.2 shots per game.
Elias Pettersson, C, Vancouver
(Preseason: 15, Current: 298)
4 G, 5 A in 14 GP
Has a career-high 2.5 shots on goal per game but sky-high on-ice shooting percentage can’t sustain itself. He has relied on high percentages through his first two seasons so he can hope that it’s his super-power or else Pettersson needs to create more offense.
Jake Guentzel, LW, Pittsburgh
(Preseason: 20, Current: 395)
3 G, 3 A in 11 GP
Even worse on-ice shooting percentage (4.9% at evens) than frequent linemate Crosby and Guenztel’s shot rate (2.7 per game) is down more than half a shot per game from last season.
Evgeni Malkin, C, Pittsburgh
(Preseason: 25, Current: 427)
1 G, 4 A in 10 GP
Not only has Malkin scored on just one of 20 shots he has just 20 shots in 10 games! 2.0 shots per game is easily a career low and legitimate reason for concern.
Teuvo Teravainen, LW, Carolina
(Preseason: 43, Current: 421)
0 G, 2 A in 5 GP
Very small sample but with 15 shots in five games, it’s reasonable to expect better production going forward from Teravainen.
Evander Kane, LW, San Jose
(Preseason: 63, Current: 207)
2 G, 3 A in 8 GP
Not only is Kane dealing with low on-ice shooting percentage (4.7% at evens) but he has 2.5 shots per game, his lowest rate since his rookie season.
Kris Letang, D, Pittsburgh
(Preseason: 71, Current: 226)
0 G, 3 A in 9 GP
Like many veteran Penguins, Letang is having a hard time. His shot rate (2.3 per game) is his lowest since 2008-2009, and he has one power play point. On top of that, he is hurt, so it will likely get better.
Jonathan Marchessault, LW, Vegas
(Preseason: 81, Current: 231)
1 G, 4 A in 7 GP
Five points in seven games is fine but Marchessault has 2.1 shots on goal per game, down from nearly 3.6 per game last season.
Zach Werenski, D, Columbus
(Preseason: 94, Current: 380)
1 G, 3 A in 12 GP
Shot rate is down a bit from last season and last season’s 10.7 SH% was unsustainable for a defenseman.
Seth Jones, D, Columbus
(Preseason: 99, Current: 457)
1 G, 2 A in 12 GP
Starting to wake up offensively after one point in the first 10 games. His percentages are low and his shot rate (1.75 per game) is his lowest since his second season in 2014-2015 when he was still in Nashville.
Erik Karlsson, D, San Jose
(Preseason: 108, Current: 533)
0 G, 3 A in 8 GP
There was lots of talk about Karlsson feeling healthy coming into this season but he is off to a rough start, getting caved in when it comes to shot differentials and has managed 1.5 shots per game, the lowest rate of his career, even though he is playing 26:49 per game.
Rasmus Dahlin, D, Buffalo
(Preseason: 122, Current: 367)
1 G, 2 A in 10 GP
Has three points in the past four games so it seems like Dahlin is turning the corner. For whatever defensive questions might exist, he is generating 3.2 shots per game.
Alexis Lafreniere, LW, N.Y. Rangers
(Preseason: 124, Current: 636)
1 G, 0 A in 10 GP
Not exactly the start that was expected for the first overall pick. Lafreniere does have low percentages across the board and 18 shots on goal in 10 games is adequate but it looks like his fantasy value will be based on future seasons.
Max Domi, C, Columbus
(Preseason: 128, Current: 620)
1 G, 3 A in 12 GP
Domi shot more in in Montreal and he has low percentages too but he did get a chance to play with Patrik Laine Thursday and that should be enough to hang onto him for a little while longer.
Cam Atkinson, RW, Columbus
(Preseason: 129, Current: 412)
2 G, 3 A in 12 GP
A career-low 2.25 shots per game and low percentages but, like Domi, Atkinson is worth considering.
Reilly Smith, RW, Vegas
(Preseason: 130, Current: 311)
2 G, 1 A
Still a pretty small sample for Smith. His shot rate is down a little but not enough to be a concern just yet.
Tony DeAngelo, D, N.Y. Rangers
(Preseason: 132, Current: 565)
0 G, 1 A in 6 GP
Pretty much worthless for fantasy purposes because he does not have a team to play for right now, DeAngelo has had defensive issues throughout his career that would land him in the press box from time to time. When it happened early this season, GM Jeff Gorton said that DeAngelo couldn’t let it go.
Brock Nelson, C, N.Y. Islanders
(Preseason: 133, Current: 535)
2 G, 1 A in 9 GP
Only 1.7 shots per game would be the lowest per-game rate of Nelson’s career but it’s early enough that can change.
Matt Duchene, C, Nashville
(Preseason: 139, Current: 355)
2 G, 3 A in 12 GP
Scored his first two goals of the season Thursday night and has generated 2.7 shots on goal per game, his highest rate since 2013-2014.
Evgenii Dadonov, RW, Ottawa
(Preseason: 151, Current: 539)
1 G, 2 A in 11 GP
Poor percentages and a modest 1.8 shots per game would make Dadonov droppable but just moved to play with Brady Tkachuk on Ottawa’s top line and that might be worth watching for a couple of games before cutting Dadonov loose.
William Karlsson, C, Vegas
(Preseason: 154, Current: 400)
2 G, 1 A in 7 GP
Like linemates Marchessault and Smith, it’s early but Karlsson’s numbers aren’t quite up to expectations.
Rickard Rakell, LW, Anaheim
(Preseason: 159, Current: 359)
1 G, 2 A in 11 GP
Rakell is generating 3.3 shots per game, a career high rate but he has taken low percentages from the past two seasons and somehow is faring worse this season. Might still be a buy-low candidate because the shots are a good building block but no one is scoring for the Ducks.
Jeff Skinner, LW, Buffalo
(Preseason: 160, Current: 559)
0 G, 1 A in 10 GP
What happens when you take a $9 million/year winger and drop him to the fourth line? In Skinner’s case, his shot generation wasn’t bad, considering his ice time, but the production was as minimal as one might expect. He has moved up the depth chart, though, so maybe he can come alive offensively.
Phillip Danault, C, Montreal
(Preseason: 167, Current: 330)
0 G, 5 A in 11 GP
Earned a couple of assists Thursday night but five assists and just 13 shots on goal in 11 games is not going to keep any kind of fantasy value, especially for a player who isn’t a significant power play option.
Connor Hellebuyck, G, Winnipeg
(Preseason: 16, Current: 202)
5-2-1, .913 SV%
The reigning Vezina winner was inconsistent through his first handful of starts but it was a small sample, not a real concern.
Carter Hart, G, Philadelphia
(Preseason: 31, Current: 562)
4-2-2, .898 SV%
It was supposed to be a breakout season for the third year netminder but early results have been mixed.
Tuukka Rask, G, Boston
(Preseason: 34, Current: 287)
4-1-1, .888 SV%
The Bruins are a strong team, so Rask is winning but that save percentage is not up to his customary level.
Robin Lehner, G, Vegas
(Preseason: 37, Current: 524)
2-1-1, .885 SV%
Similarly, Lehner will get wins but Marc-Andre Fleury has been the better of the Golden Knights goaltenders thus far.
Carey Price, G, Montreal
(Preseason: 51, Current: 358)
4-1-2, .899 SV%
Getting tons of goal support and apparently looks like he is going to stop the puck but just does it with less frequency than other goaltenders.
Frederik Andersen, G, Toronto
(Preseason: 52, Current: 407)
6-2-1, .888 SV%
The wins will be there but the fantasy value isn’t going to be great with that save percentage.
Darcy Kuemper, G, Arizona
(Preseason: 57, Current: 424)
2-5-1, .904 SV%
The wins won’t come easily and if Kuemper is hovering around league average that’s not where he has been in the past three seasons.
Tristan Jarry, G, Pittsburgh
(Preseason: 59, Current: 774)
2-3-1, .859 SV%
There were questions about the Penguins’ goaltending coming into the season and the early answers have not been good.
The takeaway from this might be that no one knows anything about goaltending. Also, it’s a very small sample of games and preseason projections were not based on how these guys would play in half a dozen starts, so keep that in mind, too. If a player, like Rask for example, has a strong track record, there is no reason to get up in arms about a few iffy starts.
THURSDAY STARS
FLA LW Jonathan Huberdeau 3 G, 2 A in a 6-5 OT loss vs. Nashville
NSH LW Filip Forsberg 2 G, 3 A in a 6-5 OT win at Florida
CHI RW Patrick Kane 1 G, 3 A in a 6-4 win vs. Carolina
TOR C Jason Spezza 3 G in a 7-3 win vs. Vancouver
THURSDAY GAMES
Washington 2 N.Y. Rangers 4
NYR C Ryan Strome 2 G (4 G, 2 A in past 6 GP)
NYR LW Artemi Panarin 3 A (3 G, 6 A in past 4 GP)
Nashville 6 Florida 5 (OT)
FLA LW Jonathan Huberdeau 3 G, 2 A (3 G, 5 A in past 3 GP)
FLA C Aleksander Barkov 1 G, 1 A (3 G, 6 A in 7 GP)
NSH LW Filip Forsberg 2 G, 3 A (6 G, 5 A in 10 GP)
NSH C Matt Duchene 2 G
NSH D Ryan Ellis 2 A (1 G, 3 A in past 3 GP)
Dallas 3 Columbus 4
CBJ C Jack Roslovic 1 G, 1 A (1 G, 3 A in 5 GP)
CBJ RW Oliver Bjorkstrand 1 G, 1 A (2 G, 2 A in past 4 GP)
DAL RW Alexander Radulov 3 A (1 G, 7 A during a 5-game point streak)
Max Domi centered line with Patrik Laine and Alexandre Texier.
Carolina 4 Chicago 6
CHI RW Patrick Kane 1 G, 3 A (3 G, 5 A during a 4-game point streak)
CHI LW Dominik Kubalik 1 G, 2 A (3 G, 8 A in past 9 GP)
CHI RW Alex DeBrincat 2 G (2 G, 5 A during a 4-game point streak)
CHI LW Mathias Janmark 1 G, 1 A (4 G, 4 A in past 8 GP)
CAR RW Andrei Svechnikov 1 G, 1 A (6 G, 3 A in 8 GP)
CAR C Sebastian Aho 1 G, 1 A (2 G, 5 A in past 6 GP)
CAR D Dougie Hamilton 2 A (6 A in past 7 GP)
The Hurricanes line of Brock McGinn, Sebastian Aho, and Andrei Svechnikov, along with defenseman Dougie Hamilton, was on the ice for three goals for and none against during 5-on-5 play.
Arizona 4 St. Louis 3
STL LW Mike Hoffman 2 G (3 G, 2 A during a 4-game point streak)
STL RW David Perron 2 A (4 G, 6 A in past 7 GP)
STL D Torey Krug 2 A (5 A in past 5 GP)
ARZ C Christian Dvorak 1 G, 1 A (6 G, 2 A in past 6 GP)
ARZ RW Conor Garland 1 G, 1 A (3 G, 4 A in past 6 GP)
ARZ D Jordan Oesterle 2 A
Ottawa 3 Montreal 2
MTL C Phillip Danault 2 A
OTT LW Tim Stutzle 1 G, 2 A (2 G, 2 A in past 3 GP)
OTT G Matt Murray stopped 36 of 38 shots for the win. (.866 SV%)
Vancouver 3 Toronto 7
TOR C Jason Spezza 3 G (4 G, 3 A in past 5 GP)
TOR RW Mitch Marner 1 G, 2 A (3 G, 8 A during a 6-game point streak)
TOR C Auston Matthews 2 G (8 G, 3 A during an 8-game point streak)
TOR RW William Nylander 3 A (4 G, 8 A in 11 GP)
TOR D Jake Muzzin 2 A (1 G, 4 A in past 5 GP)
TOR D Morgan Rielly 2 A (8 A in past 5 GP)
TOR RW Travis Boyd 2 A (1 G, 3 A in 3 GP)
VAN LW J.T. Miller 1 G, 1 A (3 G, 10 A in 11 GP)
Canucks RW Tyler Motte and defensemen Jordie Benn and Quinn Hughes were on the ice for three goals against during 5-on-5 play.
Calgary 1 Winnipeg 4
WPG RW Mason Appleton 2 G (3 G, 3 A in past 6 GP)
WPG LW Mathieu Perreault 3 A
THURSDAY SHOTS/EXPECTED GOALS (VIA NATURAL STAT TRICK)
FRIDAY GAME PROBABILITIES
FRIDAY DFS VALUE PLAYS
NSH C Matt Duchene $4500 at FLA
NSH LW Mikael Granlund $4200 at FLA
VGK RW Alex Tuch $4300 vs. LA
TB D Mikhail Sergachev $4500 vs. DET