The Start of a New Season

Team and Player Totals Plus Wednesday's Games

Before the pucks drops on the 2021 NHL season, might as well include these season-long over/unders for the record. Lines courtesy of BetOnline.ag.

It is likely to be an unusual season. No sport seems to be escaping unscathed and the NHL isn’t even getting out the gate clean thanks to an outbreak on the Dallas Stars. These are complicated times.

Anyway, here are some team and player totals of interest:

Colorado Avalanche OVER 73.5

That is a little under a 108-point pace in an 82-game season and the bottom half of the West Division looks like it is going to be ripe for the picking. I have the Avalanche projected for 79 points because they appear to clearly be the best team heading into the 2021 season.

Pittsburgh Penguins OVER 65.5

I liked it at 64.5, too. The Penguins do have legitimate questions in goal but, otherwise, it remains a solid roster. I think it’s easy to gloss over the fact that Sidney Crosby only played 41 games last season and as long as Crosby and Malkin are in the lineup, the Penguins should comfortably be a playoff team.

Vancouver Canucks UNDER 63.5

Also liked this one at 64.5, too. The Canucks have some solid pieces but their forward depth, defense, and goaltending all have question marks so this could be a season that sees them drop off a bit.

New York Islanders UNDER 64.5

I noted in my Preseason Power Rankings that the Islanders are a team that I consistently underrate by I’ll take my chances with this number. I’m not sold on their defense or their forward depth so I see them playing at less than a 94-point pace in a full season.

Columbus Blue Jackets UNDER 64.5

In the case of the Blue Jackets, I suppose I’m not sold entirely on their goaltending, even if it was a strength last season. Their defense is solid and the forward group is okay, although there is some question about how they will score – not enough established offensive performers in that lineup.

Arizona Coyotes UNDER 58.5

I don’t see enough scoring from the Coyotes. They have a quality tandem in net (Darcy Kuemper and Antti Raanta) and a solid veteran-laden defense corps. They just don’t have enough scoring talent up front to be consistently dangerous.

Detroit Red Wings OVER 43.5

It’s not like the expectation is that the Red Wings will be good – they won’t be – but they did add some solid pros to their lineup, not the least of which would be veteran netminder Thomas Greiss, who should represent a big upgrade on Jimmy Howard, who won two of 26 decisions for the Red Wings last season.

Matt Murray UNDER .9095 SV%

Had a career-low .899 SV% last season and moves to an Ottawa team that should struggle.

Anze Kopitar OVER 45.5 POINTS

Can Kopitar score at the same rate he did last season? Well that was around a 49-point pace in a 56-game season, so even if he’s 33, he should be able to come up with at least 46 this season.

Dylan Larkin UNDER 49.5 POINTS

A great young player, Larkin doesn’t have a great deal of support in Detroit so it’s not easy to bank on at least 50 points.

John Carlson UNDER 52.5 POINTS

The top scoring defenseman over the past three seasons gets a big number to cover. If he stays healthy enough to play in every game, 53 points in 56 games is a tall order. It gets more difficult the moment Carlson has to miss time.

Kirill Kaprizov OVER 33.5 POINTS

Points from the KHL tend to transfer to the NHL at a relatively favorable rate and Kaprizov had 113 points in 114 games in his last two seasons in Russia. There are legit issues about who is playing center in Minnesota, but I like Kaprizov to clear this relatively easily.

Leon Draisaitl UNDER 79.5 POINTS

A great player who led the league in scoring last season but also a player who was riding sky-high percentages. If his percentages dip at all, if the Oilers power play isn’t as dominant, if he misses any time at all it becomes really difficult to put up 80 points in a shortened season.

Max Pacioretty UNDER 45.5 POINTS

Had a great season last year with 66 points in 71 games but he also played every game after missing 34 games in the previous two seasons.

Ryan O’Reilly UNDER 51.5 POINTS

A strong two-way performer but O’Reilly benefitted from inflated percentages last season so regression should be coming his way.

Wednesday’s probabilities according to my model:

Some value players to consider on Draft Kings on opening night:

TB C Brayden Point $7000 vs. Chicago

CHI C Dylan Strome $3100 at Tampa Bay

TOR W Joe Thornton $3600 vs. Montreal

STL W Mike Hoffman $3200 at Colorado

D Tyson Barrie $4400 vs. Vancouver

D Jeff Petry $4500 at Toronto