The Dealing Begins

Palmieri, Zajac, Connolly among those to move early with deadline looming

Monday may not be the most exciting NHL Trade Deadline. It seems difficult for teams to make moves due to tight salary cap situations and there are not that many difference makers available.

Nevertheless, the trades have started so I’ll try to break them down.

LOU ACQUIRES TWO FORWARDS FROM THE DEVILS

The Islanders Get: RW Kyle Palmieri and C Travis Zajac

Palmieri is a five-time 20-goal scorer who has struggled to finish this season, managing eight goals in 34 games. This despite generating shot attempts, shots, and expected goals at the best rates of his tenure in New Jersey. But he is scoring on 9.8% of his 5-on-5 shots this season, the second-lowest percentage of his career. He also hasn’t recorded a primary assist yet this season. A player who has good shot rates but is running through some poor percentages is a nice player to bet on moving forward, even if that might not be the calculation at play for the Islanders.

Palmieri is a 30-year-old who is in the final season of a contract that has a $4.65 million cap hit. Given his track record, he is going to be a popular target in free agency but, in the meantime, he can be a big part of the Islanders’ playoff run. With Anders Lee out for the season, the Islanders have had a glaring hole on their top line and while Palmieri is a right shot, he could conceivably fill that left wing spot.

Zajac is a 35-year-old who has played all 1024 games of his NHL career with the Devils. He has been a strong two-way center for most of his career and even while he is naturally in decline in his mid-30s, he has probably been used more than he anticipated this season thanks to Nico Hischier’s injury. His 2.44 points/60 ranks 38th among players to play at least 200 5-on-5 minutes, more than David Pastrnak, Nikolaj Ehlers, and Claude Giroux.

Zajac is in the last year of a $5.75 million contract and if he wants to continue his career next season there should be some teams interested in his services, albeit probably not at that price. The Islanders have had a bit of a revolving door on the third-line wings beside Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Zajac could add some stability there.

The Devils Get: LW A.J. Greer, Mason Jobst, a first-round pick in 2021 and a conditional fourth-round pick in 2022.

The prize of the deal for New Jersey is the Islanders’ first-round pick, which looks like it will be in the mid-20s (depending on playoff results). Picks in that range tend to have about a 63% chance of playing at least 100 games in the NHL and nearly a one-in-four chance of becoming a top-six forward or top-four defenseman.

Greer is a 24-year-old winger whose star has dimmed from the days when he was a decent prospect for the Avalanche. He only had two points (1 G, 1 A) in 10 AHL games this season but a fresh start with the Devils might give Greer an outside shot at reaching the NHL.  

Jobst is a 27-year-old who played at Ohio State and is in his second pro season. He has 15 points in 51 AHL games in his career so it doesn’t seem like he has an NHL future.

The conditional fourth-round pick, if it ultimately goes to the Devils, has about a one-in-six chance of playing at least 100 NHL games.

Verdict: This is a bold move for the Islanders but absolutely a move that a team in their position should make. A late first-round pick for a couple of top nine forwards, with half of their salary retained, is not bad value at all for a contending team. From the Devils’ perspective, they were motivated to at least get the first-round pick, willing to include two players and retain salary rather than try to piecemeal trades and get multiple picks that were not first-round selections.

FLORIDA CORNERS THE MARKET ON LUCASES

Panthers Get: C Lucas Wallmark and D Lucas Carlsson

Wallmark, 25, had a few seasons in Carolina in which he was very effective as a fourth-line center who could generate a little offense. He had 53 points, total, in the two seasons prior to this one and joined a Chicago team that had gaping holes down the middle of the ice, so he might have had a chance to expand upon his previous role but that did not happen and he has managed zero goals and three assists in 16 games.

He goes back to Florida, where he ended last season, recording two points in seven games for the Panthers, and may have a chance to salvage this season if he can earn a regular spot in the lineup. Wallmark will be a restricted free agent in the summer and is making $950,000 this season.

Carlsson is a 23-year-old left-shot defenseman who has been a spare part for the past couple of seasons, managing two assists in 18 games for Chicago. He does have 62 points in 124 career AHL games so there may be some untapped puck skills in there but given the veterans ahead of him on the depth chart in Florida, Carlsson is still a seventh or eighth defenseman with the Panthers.

Chicago Gets: RW Brett Connolly, C Henrik Borgstrom, D Riley Stillman, and a seventh-round pick.

Connolly, 28, is a veteran winger who has moved around a bit – Chicago will be his fifth NHL team – and while he is not an effective play driver, his excellent shot has allowed him to contribute, mostly in a third-line role. Since 2014-2015, Connolly has scored on 15.7% of his shots, a lofty number that puts him 10th among players to play at least 300 games since 2014-2015. Most of the names above him are famous goal scorers – Brayden Point, Leon Draisaitl, Mark Scheifele, Steven Stamkos, T.J. Oshie, Brad Marchand, Mikko Rantanen, Auston Matthews etc. – with breakaway threat Paul Byron the one lesser-known forward in that particular Top 10.

Connolly still has two years left on his deal after this season, with a cap hit of $3.5 million, so Chicago ought to be invested in getting his career back on track. He had scored at least 15 goals in four straight seasons entering 2021 but has just two goals in 21 games this season as he has been relegated to the fourth line or the press box.

Borgstrom is a 23-year-old who was a first-round pick of the Panthers in 2016. He had 19 points in 58 games for Florida and had not quite broken through as an NHLer but it also seemed that he was not getting a great look from the new management and coaching staff in Florida. He has a modest 19 points (11 G, 8 A) in 27 games for HIFK in Finland this season. If Borgstrom is interested in returning to North America, the Blackhawks should be able to create an environment in which he has a chance to make it work. Pius Suter and Philipp Kurashev have made it work coming from Europe to Chicago this season so it would not be out of the question that Borgstrom, an unsigned restricted free agent, could still have another kick at the NHL can.

Stillman is a 23-year-old left-shot defenseman who is the son of long-time NHLer Cory Stillman. Riley has five assists in 43 NHL games over the past three seasons and in that small sample of games, it does look like his defensive impacts are decent enough. He may still be a depth defenseman for Chicago but is interesting enough that he could get an opportunity on the third pair. Stillman is on an entry-level deal that has a cap hit of $773,333 and he will be a restricted free agent in the offseason.

The seventh-round pick is a tiny sweetener, with maybe a 1-in-10 chance of turning into an NHL player.

Verdict: Chicago makes the only real investment in the trade, taking on Connolly’s contract but they also get some shiny future potential in Borgstrom. On the basis of this deal alone, it looks better for Chicago. If Florida uses the cap space that they just created to make a subsequent trade then the long-term value could swing in their direction.

CANUCKS EXTEND PEARSON

Finally, the Vancouver Canucks signed left winger Tanner Pearson to a three-year, $9.75-million deal.

For a team that isn’t close to a playoff spot this season, deciding that they must have the age 29, 30, and 31 seasons of a winger who is not exactly enjoying his finest season with six goals and five assists in 33 games.

It’s not as though Pearson has not had positive seasons – he is a two-time 20-goal scorer with three seasons of more than 40 points – but the Canucks are in a bad salary cap position already, thanks to overpaying players that aren’t difference-makers. Loui Eriksson, Antoine Roussel, Braden Holtby, Tyler Myers, Jay Beagle, even Sven Baertschi – there is just so much wasted money on this Canucks roster that they have $17 million in cap space with 12 players under contract for next season and they need to re-sign Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes, who are both restricted free agents due for new contracts. Like they are going to need to get into some buyouts and some cost cutting just to make this roster work, so why tie themselves to a multi-year contract for someone who might be okay or, like this season, not quite okay?

This is the kind of deal that, by itself, as a one-off, is not the end of the world. But, as a pattern of a team committing long-term deals to players who are not the ones driving results, it leaves the Canucks in a precarious salary cap position in an effort to build a sufficient supporting cast around Pettersson and Hughes.