Stanley Cup Final Preview
Can the Stars knock off the favoured team again?
The Dallas Stars and Tampa Bay Lightning meet in the 2020 Stanley Cup Final and it’s incredible that we are here. Given the challenges of setting up two bubbles in Toronto and Edmonton and making it work, the NHL deserves big credit for somehow managing their way to the end of the season – we’re not there yet, but the end is at least in sight – and while the Lightning are a relatively expected representative from the Eastern Conference, the Stars are more of a surprise coming from the West, not least of all because they had to get through Colorado and Vegas, the two teams that looked like they were the favorites in the Western Conference.
As a result, the Lightning are significant favorites in the series but they’re also walking a fine line when it comes to injuries. Steven Stamkos is still rehabbing an injury and isn’t ready to play and Brayden Point missed a couple of games against the Islanders in the Eastern Conference Final.
Injuries are part of the game, of course, but it matters who plays so if Brayden Point ends up missing games in the Cup Final, the rink starts to level out pretty quickly.
FORWARD LINES
STARS
Benn-Seguin-Radulov (51.8 CF%, 50.1 xGF%, 11 GF, 5 GA)
They didn’t have good regular seasons, any of them, when compared to their production in previous seasons, but Jamie Benn (8-10-18 in 21 GP) and Alexander Radulov (8-6-14 in 21 GP) have been better in the postseason. Tyler Seguin (2-6-8 in 20 GP) has struggled to score and it’s hard to win it all when the No. 1 centre isn’t contributing offensively.
Janmark-Pavelski-Gurianov (61.2 CF%, 64.9 xGF%, 5 GF, 3 GA)
Mattias Janmark (0-5-5 in 20 GP) hasn’t contributed much on offense but he’s a reliable player and this trio has dominated territorially. Joe Pavelski had a disappointing regular season but has picked it up (9-5-14 in 21 GP) in the playoffs. Denis Gurianov is seriously underplayed, averaging 14:05 per game in the playoffs, but he led the Stars in goals during the regular season and is tied with Pavelski for the team lead in playoff goals (9-8-17 in 21 GP).
Kiviranta-Hintz-Perry (45.5 CF%, 71.9 xGF%, 1 GF, 1 GA)
They’ve barely played together, so there isn’t a big statistical takeaway. Joel Kiviranta (4-1-5 in 8 GP) has scored big goals in his limited playing time. Roope Hintz (2-9-11 in 21 GP) is a dangerous player who has size, speed, and skill and might be able to offer a little more. Corey Perry can still be an agitator but he had a tough regular season and hasn’t been very productive (2-4-6 in 21 GP) in the playoffs.
Cogliano-Dickinson-Comeau (48.0 CF%, 40.9 xGF%, 0 GF, 2 GA)
This unit hasn’t skated together that much either. Andrew Cogliano (0-1-1 in 17 GP) and Jason Dickinson (0-2-2 in 21 GP) have yet to score a goal in the playoffs. Blake Comeau (2-4-6 in 21 GP) has produced a little more. It’s a group with some experience and enough skill that it could chip in a little bit more.
The uncertain status of centre Radek Faksa (3-5-8 in 19 GP) plays a part in how Dallas deploys their bottom six.
LIGHTNING
Palat-Point-Kucherov (64.3 CF%, 69.2 xGF%, 15 GF, 6 GA)
Tampa Bay’s top line has been dominant. Nikita Kucherov (6-20-26 in 19 GP) and Brayden Point (9-16-25 in 17 GP) are the top two scorers in the playoffs and naturally drive a lot of Tampa Bay’s offense. Ondrej Palat isn’t necessarily as creative as his linemates but he’s been productive (8-5-13 in 19 GP) and his steady two-way play helps this Lightning line consistently bury the opposition.
Killorn-Cirelli-Johnson (47.0 CF%, 44.7 xGF%, 1 GF, 5 GA)
It’s hard to fathom that this line has managed to score one 5-on-5 goal in more than 170 minutes in the playoffs but here we are. Alex Killorn (4-4-8 in 18 GP) and Tyler Johnson (4-3-7 in 19 GP) are veteran secondary scorers though they can go through some dry spells. Anthony Cirelli (3-3-6 in 19 GP) is a top-notch checking centre, a likely Selke candidate for the next decade and he scored the overtime goal that sent the Lightning to the Cup Final.
Goodrow-Gourde-Coleman (56.7 CF%, 57.4 xGF%, 10 GF, 5 GA)
Barclay Goodrow (1-4-5 in 19 GP) and Blake Coleman (4-6-10 in 19 GP) are a couple of additions that have provided much-needed depth for the Lightning and they’ve helped pick up Gourde (5-7-12 in 19 GP) who didn’t have a great regular season. This line’s results in the playoffs are a big part of Tampa Bay’s success.
Maroon-Paquette (54.3 CF%, 59.2 xGF%, 3 GF, 3 GA)
The Lightning often dress 11 forwards and seven defensemen, leaving room for a double-shifting forward to get more chances. Pat Maroon (1-3-4 in 19 GP) and Cedric Paquette (0-2-2 in 19 GP) are hard-nosed players and Maroon is seeking his second straight Stanley Cup. Getting strong possession numbers out of the fourth line is dare-to-dream kind of performance. Carter Verhaeghe and Mitchell Stephens also see some time in the Tampa Bay lineup.
DEFENSE PAIRINGS
STARS
Lindell-Klingberg (44.1 CF%, 45.8 xGF%, 12 GF, 13 GA)
John Klingberg remains productive (3-13-16 in 21 GP) but this duo, while playing a lot, has tended to be on the wrong side of the puck more often in the postseason.
Oleksiak-Heiskanen (49.5 CF%, 54.7 xGF%, 16 GF, 8 GA)
While shot attempts haven’t been favorable for this pair, they have had a major impact. The playoffs have been a coming-out party for Miro Heiskanen (5-17-22 in 21 GP), who is Dallas’ leading scorer. It’s taken some time for Jamie Oleksiak but he’s turned in a strong season and has carried that performance forward to the playoffs.
Hanley-Sekera (50.0 CF%, 32.9 xGF%, 0 GF, 1 GA)
Sekera-Fedun (52.4 CF%, 52.8 xGF%, 1 GF, 3 GA)
Injuries have forced the Stars to dig deeper on the blueline. Stephen Johns has only appeared in four games and Taylor Fedun has appeared in 11 games while Joel Hanley has played six games. As third pairings go, they’re fine.
LIGHTNING
Hedman-Shattenkirk (56.9 CF%, 58.1 xGF%, 8 GF, 2 GA)
Tampa Bay’s anchor on the blueline, Victor Hedman has stepped up to tie for the Lightning lead in playoff goals (9-6-15 in 19 GP). He also averages 26:31 of ice time per game so he works his way around with various partners but he and Kevin Shattenkirk (1-8-9 in 19 GP) have been dominant together.
Sergachev-Cernak (50.3 CF%, 66.2 xGF%, 1 GF, 1 GA)
A quietly effective tandem with Mikhail Sergachev (2-5-7 in 19 GP) capable of doing more with the puck and contributing offensively. Erik Cernak (0-4-4 in 19 GP) plays a sound physical game and they have been effective together. Cernak has also played well with Ryan McDonagh.
McDonagh-Bogosian (60.1 CF%, 44.9 xGF%, 1 GF, 6 GA)
Ryan McDonagh (1-4-5 in 16 GP) might be nominally listed on the third pair right now but he is averaging 24:40 time on ice per game in the playoffs so he handles a more significant role. Zach Bogosian (0-4-4 in 18 GP) is expensive for his role on the third pairing but he’s been reasonably effective. Luke Schenn is getting frequent turns as the seventh defenseman.
GOALTENDING
STARS
Khudobin (.920 SV% in 19 GP)
Before the playoffs, 34-year-old Anton Khudobin would have been considered a strong backup goaltender. Now, he’s a huge part of Dallas’ surprising run to the Stanley Cup Final. Can he carry this strong play through one more round?
Bishop
One of the top goaltenders in hockey over the past seven seasons, Ben Bishop has only appeared in three playoff games, delivering an .844 save percentage. He has been deemed “unfit to play” which is why Khudobin is handling such a heavy workload.
Oettinger
Dallas’ top goaltending prospect is just 21. A first-round pick in 2017, Oettinger is dressing as the backup with Bishop out but he’s a last resort.
LIGHTNING
Vasilevskiy (.931 SV% in 19 GP)
The Lightning can pretend that Curtis McElhinney is involved but Andrei Vasilevskiy has played every minute in goal for the Lightning in the playoffs and he’s played well, making crucial saves to help Tampa Bay advance. He has the pedigree of being one of the game’s top goaltenders over the past three seasons.
POWER PLAY
STARS
Dallas’ power play has been excellent in the playoffs, scoring 11.16 goals/60 during 5-on-4 play. It’s not the big names that are producing the most as Roope Hintz and Denis Gurianov are the power play scoring leaders among Dallas forwards with eight and seven points, respectively.
LIGHTNING
Tampa Bay’s power play has not been as effective, managing 6.67 goals/60 during 5-on-4 play. This would be a prime area for improvement if Steven Stamkos is ever ready to appear in the postseason. Even so, given the talent on hand, the Lightning power play should be more effective.
PENALTY KILLING
STARS
Dallas’ penalty killing unit has been mediocre, allowing 6.54 goals/60 and 7.64 expected goals against/60. They have surrendered 116.7 shot attempts/60 when shorthanded, the second-worst rate among teams in the postseason.
LIGHTNING
The Lightning have allowed 6.05 goals/60 and 6.16 expected goals against/60. They don’t surrender as many shots as the Stars but the difference in results is not terribly significant.
DRIVING PLAY
STARS
This is a problem area for the Stars, though some of these results can be attributed to playing very strong teams in the Avalanche and Golden Knights in the past two rounds. Heading into the Final, using score and venue-adjusted 5-on-5 stats, the Stars are controlling 47.8% of shot attempts and 49.1% of expected goals.
LIGHTNING
Tampa Bay’s ability to control play obviously gives them a long-term edge. The Lightning are controlling 55.7% of shot attempts and 57.1% of expected goals. This is why the Lightning are favored in the series.
Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick