Skinner Scratched and Changes Coming to Nashville
Time To Rebuild Smashville?
On Hockey Night in Canada Saturday, Elliotte Friedman stated that the only three Nashville Predators that might be considered untouchable are defensemen Roman Josi and Ryan Ellis as well as goaltender Pekka Rinne.
Now, Josi and Rinne have no-move clauses, so they would have a good measure of control over any move in the first place and Rinne is 38-years-old in the last year of his contract. It’s entirely reasonable if he does not want to uproot his life at this stage of his career. Josi is the franchise player who just won the Norris Trophy last season so if he wants to remain in Nashville through a rebuilding process then of course he should.
Ryan Ellis, on the other hand, is a bit of a curious choice as an untouchable. He’s great, a bona fide top pair defenseman, but he is 30 years old and under contract for six more seasons at an entirely reasonable cap hit of $6.25 million. Nothing wrong with having Ryan Ellis on the roster. But if the Predators are undergoing a serious rebuilding process – one with only three untouchables on the roster – it would have to move really quickly to have them back in contender status in like three years at which point Ellis would be 33. He’s a smart puck-moving defenseman, so he may age well but it is a pretty significant statement for a rebuilding team to decide that two 30-year-old defensemen are among the untouchables on the roster.
So who could go?
Veteran blueliner Mattias Ekholm seems logical, not only to help Nashville out of a complicated expansion draft situation on the blueline (because they would presumably like to protect Josi, Ellis, and Dante Fabbro) but also because Ekholm should bring a significant return. He has one more season remaining on a deal with a $3.75 million cap hit. His defensive metrics have slipped in the past year but Ekholm’s overall impact remains positive and he has handled difficult minutes for the past six years.
Mikael Granlund is an obvious option. He re-signed in Nashville on a one year deal despite a disappointing 2019-2020 season when his percentages were in the tank. He is a skilled player who is a natural complementary fit for a contending team that needs an extra offensive boost.
Probably the most appealing trade candidate on the Nashville roster is left winger Filip Forsberg, a 26-year-old who is a creative offensive force that pushes play the right way. Forsberg’s contract, with a $6 million cap hit, expires after next season so unless Nashville is prepared to sign him long-term – and if they are rebuilding would that be smart move? – then it makes more sense for them to get a haul in return and Forsberg would bring some quality in return. A good young NHLer, a quality prospect and a first-round pick would not be an unreasonable ask for a player of his calibre. The Forsberg and Ekholm possibilities are the ones that can really signal just how big of an overhaul is coming in Nashville.
The problem that looms over the Predators is that their top two centers, Matt Duchene and Ryan Johansen, aren’t providing nearly enough for guys who each have an $8 million cap hit.
They could still deal Viktor Arvidsson, Calle Jarnkrok, Nick Cousins, Brad Richardson – there are lots of pieces that aren’t nailed down – but if the Predators are prepared to move Ekholm and Forsberg and re-shape their team with the young players they get in return, in addition to their own prospects, they could have a very different look even by the end of this season.
Figure that a couple of Eeli Tolvanen, Rem Pitlick, Philip Tomasino, and David Farrance can carve out NHL careers, plus whatever comes in trades and they can look ahead to a different mix and maybe some of the young guys can turn into dynamic players. Of course, Forsberg is already one of those but his contract timing does complicate that decision.
In any case, it is no surprise that teams like Ottawa and Detroit would be among the sellers this season but it was not such a sure thing for Nashville. Given where the Predators sit right now - seventh place in the Central Division, eight points behind Chicago with a couple of games at hand - they are getting very close to pressing the button to start a rebuild.
Monday Games
Dallas 1 Florida 3
FLA G Chris Driedger stopped 24 of 25 shots for the win. (.929 SV% in nine starts)
DAL G Anton Khudobin saved 49 of 51 shots in the loss. (.915 SV% in eight starts)
Tampa Bay 4 Carolina 2
CAR RW Jesper Fast 2 G
TB LW Ondrej Palat 1 G, 1 A (3 G, 5 A in past 6 GP)
TB C Steven Stamkos 1 G, 1 A (7 G, 4 A in past 9 GP)
TB D Victor Hedman 1 G, 1 A (1 G, 6 A in past 6 GP)
TB G Andrei Vasilevskiy turned away 34 of 36 shots for the victory. (.931 SV% in 14 starts)
Buffalo 2 N.Y. Islanders 3
NYI G Semyon Varlamov stopped 33 of 35 shots in the win. (.927 SV% in 14 starts)
Left winger Jeff Skinner did not dress for Buffalo. After Skinner had 14 goals and 23 points last season, one year after scoring 40 goals, he was a candidate for a bounce-back season. He has had ups and downs in his career but has consistently generated shots and that does ultimately lead to goals.
But he has seven years left on his contract with a $9 million cap hit! That isn’t a player to bury and that’s what the Sabres have done to him this year. His most common linemates have been Riley Sheahan and Curtis Lazar, which is not the way to set up a scoring winger for success and – surprise! – Skinner has no goals and one assist in 14 games this season.
This is not to completely absolve Skinner of responsibility for this mess, either. There’s a reason that Carolina didn’t want to keep him – some of it, financial, to be sure – but also it’s fair to wonder whether he was as committed to an all-around game as Rod Brind’Amour expected and, now, as Ralph Krueger expects in Buffalo.
Here’s the thing about choosing this time, with this team, to send a message to Skinner: the Sabres need wins, desperately. This team was built with the idea of competing for a playoff spot. That’s how they sold Taylor Hall on a one-year deal as a free agent but they have struggled since coming out of their Covid break and have not been able to generate nearly enough offense, so what is the long-term gain by sitting out one of the proven scorers on the roster?
Once the Sabres are fully out of playoff contention, and they are seven points back of Philadelphia for fourth in the same number of games and nine points back of the Islanders with three games at hand, but if this mess goes on for any longer, it won’t matter at all what they do with Jeff Skinner this season. Then they will just be sitting on a contract with six years and $52 million left on it after this season for an asset that was intentionally devalued and, at those prices, that seems like a costly decision without a lot of upside.
Los Angeles 3 St. Louis 0
LA RW Dustin Brown 2 G (8 G, 4 A in past 10 GP)
LA G Jonathan Quick 30-save shutout (.903 SV% in nine starts)
Calgary 3 Toronto 0
CGY LW Matthew Tkachuk 1 G, 1 A
CGY C Sean Monahan 1 G, 1 A (1 G, 4 A in past 5 GP)
CGY D Rasmus Andersson 2 A (1 G, 5 A in past 6 GP)
CGY G David Rittich pitched a 34-save shutout. (.909 SV% in 6 GP)
Vegas 3 Colorado 0
VGK LW Alex Tuch 2 G
VGK C William Karlsson 2 A (1 G, 8 A in past 9 GP)
VGK G Marc-Andre Fleury 34-save shutout for the W. (.942 SV% in 11 starts)
Anaheim 3 Arizona 4
ARZ C Christian Dvorak 2 G
ARZ D Jakob Chychrun 1 G, 1 A (3 G, 4 A in past 8 GP)
ARZ LW Clayton Keller 2 A (3 G, 6 A in past 8 GP)
ANA D Cam Fowler 1 G, 1 A
ANA LW Max Comtois 2 A (4 G, 3 A in past 8 GP)
Minnesota 6 San Jose 2
MIN RW Mats Zuccarello 1 G, 2 A (2 G, 5 A in 4 GP)
MIN C Victor Rask 1 G, 2 A (4 G, 2 A in past 4 GP)
MIN LW Kirill Kaprizov 1 G, 1 A (2 G, 4 A in past 6 GP)
MIN LW Marcus Foligno 1 G, 1 A
MIN RW Ryan Hartman 2 A (1 G, 3 A in past 3 GP)
Digging Deep
Washington Capitals center Lars Eller is getting a bigger role as the Capitals are dissatisfied with the play of Evgeny Kuznetsov. The latest line combos for the Capitals have Eller between Alex Ovechkin and Tom Wilson. In the past six games, Eller has five points (1 G, 4 A) and played a season-high 19:12 in Monday’s win over New Jersey. (4% rostered in Yahoo)
MONDAY SHOTS/EXPECTED TOALS (Via Natural Stat Trick)
TUESDAY GAME PROBABILITIES
TUESDAY DFS VALUE PLAYS
WSH C Lars Eller $3300 vs. PIT
OTT C Josh Norris $4400 vs. MTL
BUF RW Sam Reinhart $4700 at NJ
WSH LW Jakub Vrana $4600 vs. PIT
NJ D Damon Severson $3900 vs. BUF
PIT D Mike Matheson $3400 at WSH
DET G Jonathan Bernier $7000 vs. NSH