World Juniors
American center Trevor Zegras was awesome. He can play for the Ducks now, can’t he? I understand that in the old days he might spend some time in the AHL but Zegras is skilled enough to play for Anaheim, even if it’s on the wing to start. When I look at the Ducks depth chart, there should be room for a look at the very least. I mean, sorry Sonny Milano or Nic Deslauriers, I guess, but Zegras has a chance to be a real playmaker in the NHL and given the uncertainty over the AHL and taxi squads etc. this season, he has to be there. What I particularly liked about Zegras in the gold medal game was his attitude – he said before the game that he didn’t think Canada had been tested – and then set about testing them. In the epic shift that put them on the path to the first goal of the game, Zegras came into the offensive zone and just kept attacking. Scoring chance, puck back to the point, win a race to a loose puck, another scoring chance…and eventually Alex Turcotte tipped in a weak point shot – but it was Zegras’ command of that shift that stood out. He wasn’t intimidated, he wasn’t backing down and, instead, was challenging the team that had effectively been the tournament bully – and they couldn’t handle him.
Now, the one point of caution is that players lighting up the World Juniors do not necessarily make great pros, as Casey Mittelstadt supporters can tell you. Zegras led the tournament in scoring with 18 points in seven games but it’s a small sample tournament and as fun as the hockey is, it’s not as disciplined as the NHL.
Having said all that, I’d be interested in Zegras as a late-round sleeper even for this season. Maybe he won’t translate right away but he’s a smart competitive playmaker. If the Ducks put him on the wing with Ryan Getzlaf and Rickard Rakell, for example, wouldn’t that line have a chance to make some noise? At least worth considering.
So, who else from the tournament is headed to the pros?
Bowen Byram will join the Colorado Avalanche and the question isn’t so much whether Byram is ready. He was the best defenseman in the tournament and he had 123 points in 117 games for Vancouver in the WHL over the past two seasons. How does he fit with the Avalanche right now? On their blueline, they have Cale Makar, Sam Girard, Devon Toews, Erik Johnson, Ryan Graves, and Ian Cole. Prospect Conor Timmins is knocking on the door, so where does Byram fit? Do they just plug Byram in and move around the likes of Johnson, Graves, and Cole. It’s going to be something to see Byram and Makar on the same blueline for a long time but it will be interesting to see how the Avs play it this season, specifically.
Dylan Cozens was Canada’s best skater in the tournament and I’ve had the expectation that he was going to be in Buffalo this season anyway. My projections had Cozens starting in a third-line role and that seems the safe play but he is probably upwardly mobile if he can play well right out of the gate.
Jets defenseman Ville Heinola had a strong showing for Finland. He had 14 points in 19 games in Liiga in Finland, so he’s probably ready for his chance in Winnipeg. The Jets have a shaky blueline and Heinola had five points in eight games for them last season. Not sure he has fantasy value this season but, long-term he should be really important for the Jets.
The U.S. win in the gold medal game was backed by goaltender Spencer Knight, the 13th pick in the 2019 Draft, who has had great numbers at Boston College and ought to be ready for pro hockey soon. Where will that leave the Florida Panthers, who are tied to Sergei Bobrovsky forevermore? It probably depends on whether Bobrovsky can bounce back this season.
The Panthers are looking pretty nice in net long-term as Canadian netminder Devon Levi was a seventh-round pick last summer. He was dominant in the tournament, with a .964 save percentage in seven games, and is headed to Northeastern University.
Another couple of prospects that I wonder about for this season: Alex Turcotte from Team USA and Quinton Byfield from Team Canada, both prospects of the Los Angeles Kings. Given what the Kings have up front, will there be room for one, or even both of them, to get a look? I haven’t projected either one to be on the Kings roster but, admittedly, that was maybe not factoring in the likelihood that junior hockey would still be shut down into February.
I shouldn’t forget about Tim Stutzle, the Senators prospect who had an impressive showing with Germany. He looks like an excellent prospect and might even make the Senators this season but I’m skeptical that it’s going to be an especially productive season for an 18-year-old joining a team that looks like it is going to have problems.
Right Wing Tiers/Rankings
Tier 1
Patrick Kane, Steven Stamkos, David Pastrnak, Mitch Marner
Even the top tier of right wing is a little interesting because there is some risk involved even at the high end. Kane is a reliable point producer and he will probably find a way to score again this season, no matter how bad Chicago is as a team. However, it’s a little more difficult to be optimistic about Kane when Chicago is missing centers Jonathan Toews and Kirby Dach to start the season. Stamkos has 250 points in the past three seasons and is one season removed from scoring 45 goals. With Nikita Kucherov out for the regular season, Stamkos and centre Brayden Point will be expected to carry Tampa Bay’s attack. Pastrnak is a brilliant talent and one of the premier goal-scorers in the game but he’s also looking at missing a month as he recovers from offseason surgery. He would be my first pick if not for that missed time. Marner has 161 points in 141 games in the past two seasons. Playing alongside Matthews is a great spot for a skilled playmaker.
Tier 2
Mikko Rantanen, Blake Wheeler, Andrei Svechnikov, Patrik Laine, Mark Stone
Rantanen is pushing tier one, so long as he stays healthy. He has 212 points in 197 games in the past three seasons. Wheeler is 34 years old but still really productive. In his past three seasons he has 247 points in 234 games. Svechnikov is the rising star who has a chance to be a Tier 1 player but he’s just 20 so it might be a year or two before he’s right in that mix for top spot. Laine is a wildcard who scored on 18% of his shots in his first two seasons, 12.3% in the past two seasons. Stone is an outstanding all-around player but probably a bit better for real hockey than fantasy hockey.
Tier 3
Elias Lindholm, Timo Meier, Alex DeBrincat, Travis Konecny, Brendan Gallagher
By tier 3 the values are changing. Good players but not the star upside of the top couple tiers. Lindholm has been impressive in two seasons with the Flames, scoring 56 goals and 132 points in 151 games. Meier is a productive player who has 73 goals in the past three seasons and he generates shots but has never had a season with more than 10 power play points. That might be the next step to big numbers for him. DeBrincat is a pocket-sized sniper who went from 41 goals to 18 but he shot 8.7% last season. That is not likely to happen again. Konecny has 24 goals in three straight seasons and had a career-high 61 points in 66 games last season. He’s moving into the spotlight for the Flyers. Gallagher is a disturber who is an impact player at evens but, like Phillip Danault, does not have a significant role on the power play.
Tier 4
Kevin Fiala, William Nylander, Tom Wilson, Evgeni Dadonov, T.J. Oshie
It has taken some time but it looks like Fiala is ready for stardom. He finished last season with 14 goals and 26 points in his last 18 games. Nylander had a career-high 31 goals last season, rebounding from a miserable 2018-2019 season. Wilson is a unicorn, a rare complementary scorer who is a big hitter. He’s also a walking suspension risk but you get what you pay for there. Dadonov has been very productive in Florida after returning from the KHL and should be a prominent player in Ottawa, though I doubt he will have linemates as good as Barkov and Huberdeau this season. Oshie has at least 25 goals in four of the past five seasons. He also plays a pretty physical game, too.
Tier 5
Sam Reinhart, Kyle Palmieri, Reilly Smith, Jakub Voracek, Brock Boeser
Solid secondary options here. Reinhart is a heady playmaker, though his upside would be more appealing if he was playing with Jack Eichel and, at least initially, that doesn’t look like it will be the case. Palmieri has five straight seasons with at least 24 goals and he hits enough, too, but it would be better if New Jersey’s top centers appeared up to the task of leading offensively. Smith is a terrific and underrated two-way player who had a career-high 27 goals last season. Voracek is still a quality playmaking winger but he doesn’t score goals – his career high is 23 and he last scored more than 20 in 2014-2015. Boeser would rate higher if he could stay healthy. He misses at least a dozen games per season.
Tier 6
Oliver Bjorkstrand, Anthony Mantha, Alexander Radulov, Clayton Keller, Victor Olofsson
Bjorkstrand busted out last season, scoring 21 goals in 49 games, and he’s a great two-way winger. Mantha had 38 points in 43 games last season. He still feels like he has untapped potential. Radulov had back-to-back 72-point seasons before falling to 34 last season. Even at 34, he can be dangerous. The Coyotes need more from Keller, who scored 65 points as a rookie, then 47 and 44 the next two seasons. Olofsson has 46 points in 60 career games and could start the season on a line with Jack Eichel and Taylor Hall.
Tier 7
Patric Hornqvist, Phil Kessel, Mikael Granlund, Tyler Toffoli, Kailer Yamamoto
Hornqvist is a veteran crease crasher who is 34 and has trouble staying healthy, but he can still contribute offensively and gets 100-plus hits every year. Kessel found the going tough in his first year with Arizona and I’m not sure that there is great reason to be optimistic about his bounce-back potential. What hangs over him is that virtually everyone expects the end to come suddenly, given his work habits, and maybe that started last season. He’s 31, so he could have better percentages this year and be back on track or maybe this is it. Granlund is a productive playmaker who has struggled in Nashville, with terrible percentages. It would be easier to forecast a recovery for Granlund because a) he’s younger and b) his shot generation was still okay. Toffoli is a strong two-way winger who is a four-time 20-goal scorer who rarely gets the opportunity to pad his stats on the power play. Yamamoto is a bit of a wildcard. The great news is that he rides shotgun with Leon Draisaitl but both had really high percentages last season so there should be some regression coming. It’s just a matter of how much.
Tier 8
Dustin Brown, Cam Atkinson, Craig Smith, Josh Bailey, Kevin Labanc, Jordan Eberle, Bryan Rust
Brown is a veteran winger who went through some lean years but scores enough to have value because he’s still an active hitter. Atkinson had a career year in 2018-2019 and can still generate shots so goals should follow. Smith was a great free agency addition for Boston and he is a superb play-driving winger who is a five-time 20-goal scorer; may be better for real than fantasy. Bailey is a veteran playmaking winger whose best offensive output has come in the past four seasons. Labanc is a great sleeper candidate after his point total dropped from 56 to 33 even though his shot rates and expected goal rates went up. If his percentages flip, Labanc could have a big year. Eberle is fine, a scoring winger who bounced back from a down season in 2018-2019.
Tier 9
Pavel Buchnevich, Kasperi Kapanen, Jakob Silfverberg, Viktor Arvidsson, Filip Zadina, Robert Thomas
Buchnevich is a solid complementary winger who had a career-high 46 points last season. The Penguins are going to give speedy Kapanen a shot on Crosby’s wing and maybe it will work or maybe he will end up on the third line. Silfverberg is a solid veteran winger with limited upside. Arvidsson offers bigger swings – higher ceiling, lower floor. Zadina is a skilled young winger who could move up the depth chart in Detroit if he can score. Thomas has had a couple of solid seasons in St. Louis but should take another step forward this year, especially with Vladimir Tarasenko out of the lineup.
Tier 10
Jake Virtanen, Tyler Johnson, Connor Brown, Conor Garland, Nino Niederreiter, Denis Gurianov
Shotgun Jake had the best season of his career last season, scoring 18 goals and 36 points, but there is a chance for him to win a role in Vancouver’s top six this season. Johnson was shopped by the Lightning in the offseason but now looks like he will be the second line right winger. Brown has not missed a game in four seasons and had a career-high 43 points last season. Garland has scored 35 goals in 115 games, including 27 at even strength, and should be due a bigger role in Arizona. Niederreiter looked like a star when the Hurricanes acquired him from Minnesota, and he finished 2018-2019 with 30 points in 36 games. He had 29 points in 67 games last season so which one is he? Gurianov produced in a limited role last season. His upside will be dictated by how much ice time he gets this season.
Tier 11
Ondrej Kase, Martin Necas, Wayne Simmonds, Josh Anderson, Dylan Cozens, Brett Connolly, Alex Tuch
Kase is a perpetual sleeper. Scored 20 goals three seasons ago, had 11 in 30 games before having shoulder surgery the next season, then seven goals in 55 games last season, scoring on 4.9% of his shots. There is a productive winger in there somewhere. Can the Bruins unlock it? Necas has shown some skill and had 36 points in 64 games as a rookie. His upside will depend on how big his role is in Carolina. Simmonds is past his prime at this point and may not score enough to maintain fantasy value. Since leaving Philadelphia, he has 28 points and 169 hits in 85 games. Anderson had a ridiculous one goal in 26 games for Columbus last season before he needed shoulder surgery. He has some potential because he’s due to have a significant role in Montreal. Cozens is a wildcard but worth late-round consideration. If he starts in Buffalo’s top nine, who knows if he can move up as the season progresses. Connolly is a high-percentage shooter, 17.6% over the past four seasons, but he doesn’t get much power play time. Tuch collapsed last season after a career year in 2018-2019. He’s big and talented but also stuck as the Golden Knights’ third-line right wing.
Beyond…Zack Kassian, Kappo Kaako, Owen Tippett, Jesse Puljujarvi, Jordan Kyrou
Kassian has appeal as long as he is on McDavid’s wing. Kaako had a terrible rookie season but might get a chance to skate on Panarin’s line this season. Tippett scored in the AHL last season and could challenge for a scoring role in Florida. Puljujarvi played well in Finland – could he recover his NHL value? Kyrou is a sleeper in St. Louis – could start in a third-line role and move up if he shows he can score in the NHL.