Projected Top 300 NHL Scorers

McDavid, Draisaitl top the list for the 2021 NHL season

I have posted my projections here.

My projections have tended to get graded favorably by Fantasy Ref, a Twitter user who tracks fantasy hockey projections. Literally hours after posting my Locked On Fantasy Hockey podcast on Friday, Fantasy Ref announced that I had the most accurate skater projections for the fourth time in the five seasons that he has been providing that analysis.

One of the things about hockey projections that I find fascinating is that there are all kinds of data principles that can be used, aging curves and statistical regression among them, but there is a little bit of art that goes along with that statistical science when it comes time to making each individual player’s projection because a lot of projection involves evaluating what kind of opportunity will be there for a player.

It’s one thing to know a player’s historical scoring rate. It’s another thing altogether to understand the context in which those points were earned and whether or not that is something that can reasonably be expected to continue, grow, or shrink in the next season. Look at the depth chart, figure out whether that player can go from 14 minutes a night to 17. Is there now a spot available on the first power play? These are some of the considerations that need to be taken into account on top of the statistical factors – beware the aberrations when it comes to on-ice percentages, especially, but any percentages.

I will have goaltender rankings and position-by-position fantasy rankings soon but start with a look at the Top 12 according to my projections. (Top 300 here.)

Connor McDavid, 79 points

The main concern for McDavid is that he stays healthy because he is coming off a season in which he scored 97 points in 64 games, a career-best 1.52 points per game. That ended a streak of three straight 100-point seasons but this projection would be a 116-point pace in a full season, with McDavid missing a handful of games.

Leon Draisaitl, 76 points

Last year’s scoring leader with 110 points, including 44 on the power play. Draisaitl has had back-to-back 100-point seasons. Will the Oilers power play be as good this year? Both Oilers stars leaned heavily on their production with the man advantage last season.

Nikita Kucherov, 73 points

The elephant in the room here is that Kucherov is reported to be dealing with an injury – his hip? – and could miss some time. The vagueness of the report is what makes it especially challenging. If Kucherov is going to miss all or most of the regular season then he becomes mostly irrelevant in single season leagues. If he is going to miss a month, there is still time for him to be an impact player.

The 2018-2019 scoring champ, when he had 128 points, Kucherov lost a little of his production last season and still had 85 points in 68 games before leading the playoffs with 34 points in 25 games. Anyway, I’m including his full projection now and will adjust whenever there is a more definitive update about his status.

Nathan MacKinnon, 70 points

My pick for the Hart Trophy last season, MacKinnon has tallied more than 90 points in three straight seasons. The Avalanche are going to be great and MacKinnon should be in the Hart Trophy mix again this season.

Patrick Kane, 66 points

Chicago’s veteran playmaking winger has put up more than 80 points in four of the past five seasons, including an Art Ross Trophy in 2015-2016. Even as Chicago staggers around the ice, Kane can still find his way to the scoresheet.

Artemi Panarin, 66 points

The Rangers winger has been brilliant and it’s no surprise. He went to Columbus and proved that he wasn’t just a product of playing with Kane in Chicago, and then showed up in the Big Apple and had the best season of his career, scoring 95 points in 69 games. Nice.

Mitch Marner, 61 points

After a career-high 94 points in 2018-2019, Marner had 67 points in 59 games last season. Sounds bad, right? Well, his points per game dropped from 1.15 to 1.14, so just get used to Marner putting up better than a point per game because he’s 23 and this will be going on for a while.

Brad Marchand, 60 points

If not for offseason surgery, Marchand would rate even higher but there is at least some caution about whether he will be ready to play right at the start of the season. My forecast has him missing a little time but both Marchand and Pastrnak warrant keeping an eye on because missing time in a shortened season does have a bigger relative affect.

Sidney Crosby, 59 points

Sid is 33 now, so hardly a Kid, but he’s still great. It’s just that he’s coming off an injury-shortened season and those kinds of things might happen a little more frequently as a guy heads towards his mid-30s. The more interesting aspect of Crosby’s play is determining just how much of a boost he gives to his wingers.

Jonathan Huberdeau, 59 points

In the past two seasons, Huberdeau has 170 points in 151 games, which ranks ninth in the league. That kind of production can get overlooked when you play in Florida.

Jack Eichel, 58 points

Eichel has 160 points in the past two seasons, which ranks 12th, and last season really earned him praise as an elite performer. If he gets a healthy Taylor Hall on his wing this season, they could do some damage.

Auston Matthews, 58 points

In the past four seasons, only Ovechkin has more goals than Matthews’ 158. The real issue for Matthews and putting up big point totals is whether he can stay healthy. After missing 34 games in the previous two seasons, Matthews was healthy last season and finished with 80 points in 70 games.

Evgeni Malkin, 58 points

Health is an ongoing concern for Malkin, too, as he’s 34 and has had one season in the past eight in which he’s missed fewer than a dozen games. Even so, he had 74 points in 55 games last season, his highest points per game (1.35) since his Hart Trophy winning season of 2011-2012

Again, these are from my projected Top 300 Scorers. Much more to follow.