Penguins take on risk with trade for Matheson
Pittsburgh's blueline is suddenly very crowded and expensive.
It took a few days to sort out the details but the Florida Panthers and Pittsburgh Penguins made a deal, swapping a few less-than-desirable contracts.
The Panthers Get: RW Patric Hornqvist
Hornqvist, 33, has been a reliable net-front presence throughout his career, scoring more than 20 goals in eight different seasons.
For much of his career, despite having little role in transporting the puck through neutral ice, Hornqvist has been an effective play driver, consistently generating favorable shot differentials, but that was not the case in 2019-2020.
Now, it wasn’t an awful season, because Hornqvist still put up a respectable expected goals percentage and the percentages were going his way enough that he still maintained a positive goal differential.
So, the declining shot differential alone isn’t necessarily a concern but, coupled with Hornqvist heading towards his mid-thirties and coming off a season in which he played just 52 games, his lowest since the 2012-2013 lockout season, it’s fair to wonder just how much tread is left on his tires.
Where Hornqvist ought to still be a factor is on the power play. Since 2015-2016, he has scored 43 goals on the power play, which is tied for 23rd in the league. Over that same time period, per Evolving Hockey, Hornqvist had 2.68 expected goals/60 at 5-on-4 (which ranked third among players with at least 500 5-on-4 minutes) and 2.41 goals/60 during 5-on-4 play (which ranked 20th). He gets to the front of the net and cleans up the garbage. It’s not always pretty but it’s necessary and not many do it as well as Hornqvist.
With the possibility that the Panthers could lose scoring wingers Mike Hoffman and Evgeni Dadonov in free agency, Hornqvist almost assuredly fits into a top six role with Florida. He’s under contract for three more seasons, at a cap hit of $5.3 million per season. That seems a little pricey for his likely contributions in his mid-thirties but there is a complementary role that Hornqvist can fill in Florida.
The Penguins Get: D Mike Matheson and RW Colton Sceviour
Matheson is a 26-year-old defenseman who skates well and can handle the puck a bit but does have an unfortunate knack for turning the puck over.
While there may be issues with the consistency of officially scoring giveaways, in the past three seasons, Matheson is averaging 3.77 giveaways per 60 minutes, the highest rate among defensemen to appear in at least 150 games.
(To be fair, his rate of 2.32 takeaways/60 ranked second among that group of defensemen.)
The overall results with Matheson on the ice are not disastrous. For his career, he has been on the ice for 49.1% of shot attempts at evens, while starting more shifts in the defensive zone. The point shouldn’t be that he is wholly incapable of playing in the National Hockey League because that’s not right.
The greater concern, however, is that Matheson is under contract for six more seasons at a cap hit of $4.875 million. That’s a lot of money for someone who may not fit into a top four role on the blueline.
Barring any changes, Pittsburgh already has Kris Letang, Brian Dumoulin, John Marino, and Marcus Pettersson capable of playing in the top four, along with an overpriced Jack Johnson. A possible third pairing of Johnson and Matheson sounds like an absurdly expensive problem just waiting to happen.
It does look like a move that could be, almost has to be, a precursor to more moves for the Penguins.
Sceviour, 31, is a fourth-line winger who has tended to hover around break even in terms of shot differentials and expected goals, with results a little bit worse when it comes to actual goals against, which shouldn’t be a big surprise given his role.
Sceviour doesn’t generate much offense, twice hitting 11 goals as his career high, and he had four seasons with point totals in the mid-twenties but has 31 points in 128 games over the past two seasons.
In the final season of a contract that pays him $1.2 million per season, Sceviour is a serviceable fourth-line winger.
Verdict: The Panthers win this deal because they found a way to get out from under Matheson’s contract. While Hornqvist’s deal isn’t necessarily a bargain given his expectations, it’s not completely inconsistent with the role he is expected to play. From the Penguins’ perspective, dealing Hornqvist does open up a clear spot in the top six for recently acquired winger Kasperi Kapanen.
Taking on Matheson’s contract is potentially a big burden if the Penguins are unable to cure him of his giveaway woes. It’s one thing to pay Matheson when he’s playing 21-22 minutes per game as he had for three seasons from 2016-2017 through 2018-2019. It’s another matter altogether when he’s playing 18 minutes per game as he did this season, averaging less than 15 minutes per game from mid-January through to the end of the season.
As I stated up top, Hornqvist and Matheson have contracts that aren’t appealing, but Hornqvist’s deal is shorter and not as far out of line with expected contribution so for minimizing risk, Florida comes out ahead.