More Trades Heading Towards the NHL Draft
Dubois, Toffoli, Newhook, Colton, and Blackwood among those moving.
The NHL tends to get frisky on the trade market around draft time, but this season it appears to be more than that. With an uninspiring group of unrestricted free agents, teams are targeting the trade market to improve their chances for next season.
I covered four trades here and then five more followed:
Pierre-Luc Dubois does not go to Montreal
Alex Newhook does
Ross Colton is moved to Colorado
Tyler Toffoli lands in New Jersey
MacKenzie Blackwood gets a fresh start in San Jose
First up, the Kings finally made a deal to acquire Pierre-Luc Dubois from the Winnipeg Jets.
The Kings Get: C Pierre-Luc Dubois
Dubois, 25, is coming off a season in which he scored 27 goals and a career-high 63 points in 73 games. He is a 6-foot-2 center who has increased his shot rate to more than 2.80 shots per game in the past couple of seasons and it has resulted in more consistent production.
In Los Angeles, Dubois offers a complement to Anze Kopitar and Phillip Danault down the middle of the ice. Kopitar will be 36 this summer, so Dubois also gives the Kings a plan when they need to reduce Kopitar’s role.
Dubois inked an eight-year, $68 million deal with the Jets before getting traded, so the Kings are locked in with Dubois for the long haul.
The Jets Get: RW Gabe Vilardi, LW Alex Iafallo, C Rasmus Kupari, and a second-round pick.
Vilardi is a 23-year-old who came up as a center but found a fit as a right wing in Los Angeles. He has overcome back problems that hindered him early in his career and not only did he deliver a career-high 23 goals last season, but he had excellent defensive results, too.
In Winnipeg, Vilardi is probably a quality second line option, but that will depend on any other trades that the Jets have planned for this summer. If they move out Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler, the Jets might need Vilardi in a top line role.
Vilardi is a restricted free agent who made just $825,000 last season. He will be due for a big raise and the Jets likely would prefer to get him signed to a long-term deal.
Iafallo, 29, is a winger who plays with good pace and can contribute at both ends of the rink. He had 36 points (14 G, 22 A) in 59 games for the Kings last season and can capably fill a middle six role for the Jets.
Signed for two more years, at a cap hit of $4 million per season, Iafallo is priced fairly for his contributions.
Kupari is a 23-year-old checking center who has managed just 29 points (9 G, 20 A) in 130 career games, but has become a capable defensive player in a limited role. Kupari is a restricted free agent but with limited offensive contributions it should be easy enough for the Jets to get him signed to a new deal.
The second-round pick in 2024 is well traveled. It was originally Montreal’s pick and was moved from Arizona to Los Angeles in the recently completed trade for defenseman Sean Durzi. Now, it flips to Winnipeg, and gives the Jets about a one-in-three chance of landing an NHL player.
Verdict: Under the circumstances, with Dubois a year away from unrestricted free agency and not intending to sign long-term in Winnipeg, the Jets made out pretty well. They added three NHL forwards who can all play for the club next season and in the years beyond that. The Kings paid a steep price, both in terms of assets and in the term of the contract to secure Dubois’ services, but they aren’t going to complain about it – they got the player they wanted.
The Canadiens Get: C/LW Alex Newhook
The 16th pick in the 2019 Draft, Newhook is a 22-year-old who has shown some promise early in his career, but has not put it all together yet, either. He had 30 points (14 G, 16 A) in 82 games for the Avalanche last season but needs to generate more shots.
There were 278 forwards that played at least 750 minutes during five-on-five play last season and Newhook ranked 234th in the group with 5.58 shots/60, the same rate as New York Islanders left winger Matt Martin.
Skills coach Darryl Belfry had a fascinating podcast in which he broke down elements of Newhook’s game before last season, trying to identify his keys for success in the NHL, and that included an assertion that while Newhook has a reliable game, he could – and should – be more aggressive offensively. Maybe that is a matter of a young player still feeling his way into the league, but that could also be the untapped potential that the Canadiens are looking to unlock.
In Montreal, Newhook gives the Canadiens some flexibility. He can play center, though he has won just 38.6% of his faceoffs through 159 career games. That must improve if he is going to remain in the middle of the ice. Otherwise, Newhook can play left wing.
Newhook is a restricted free agent coming out of his entry-level deal. Since he has not erupted offensively, it should not be difficult for Montreal to come to an agreement with him on a new contract.
The Avalanche Get: A first-round and second-round pick.
The Canadiens made a significant offer to acquire Newhook, sending the 31st and 37th picks in the 2023 Draft to Colorado. Players drafted in that range tend to offer about a one-in-three chance of becoming an NHL player, with less than a one-in-ten chance of becoming a top-six forward or top-four defenseman.
It is intriguing that Colorado, already facing the prospect of having six forwards hit unrestricted free agency this summer, was willing to move an established NHLer under team control for those picks. The Avs will likely be tight against the cap and determined that they would be better off not inking Newhook to his second contract.
Verdict: It seems reasonable enough, based on two seasons in the league, that Newhook can be a middle-six forward in the NHL and that is likely better than what the two draft picks will yield, but it is up for debate. If the 2023 Draft is a strong one and Colorado manages to net two NHL players with those picks, they would likely win this deal because, at least to this point, Newhook has not shown enough offensive upside to expect that he will become a star.
The Devils Get: RW Tyler Toffoli
A 30-year-old right winger who scored a career-high 34 goals and 73 points for the Flames last season, Toffoli is an excellent two-way player who is one of the most consistent play drivers over the past decade.
Among the 251 active forwards that have played at least 500 games since 2013-2014, Toffoli ranks eighth with 55.6 CF%. (Numbers one through seven: Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, Matthew Tkachuk, Jordan Staal, Tomas Tatar, Phillip Danault, and Sebastian Aho.)
In New Jersey, Toffoli adds reliability and a track record of success to a Devils team that is on the rise and has young centers Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier who could benefit from Toffoli’s experience.
Toffoli is going into the last year of a contract that has a very reasonable $4.25 million salary cap hit, with an even more agreeable $3.5 million salary for the 2023-2024 season.
The Flames Get: LW Yegor Sharangovich and a third-round pick.
Sharangovich, 25, is a winger with good size and some touch around the net, but he lost his spot in the Devils lineup and his production dipped last season. In 2021-2022, Sharangovich put up a career-high 24 goals and 46 points in 76 games, while playing 16:30 per game. Last season, his production was down to 13 goals and 30 points in 75 games, while playing 14:25 per game.
He is not going to drive results on his own but is a capable complementary winger and can fill a middle six role in Calgary. Sharangovich is a restricted free agent, with arbitration rights, so he is looking at a raise on the $2.2 million that he was making last season.
The third-round pick originally belonged to Calgary, so the Flames get the approximately one-in-four chance that it might yield an NHL player.
Verdict: The Flames are in a tough spot, with many established players headed towards the last year of their contracts and if those players are not inclined to stay, the Flames almost have to move them. Such is the case with Toffoli, and the Devils reap the rewards. Sharangovich and a third-round pick is something for the Flames to cling to, but it will not likely offer the same kind of value that Toffoli can provide to New Jersey next season.
The Sharks Get: MacKenzie Blackwood
Blackwood, 26, has seen his performance dip since posting a .916 save percentage in 70 games through his first two NHL seasons. In 82 games since, across three seasons, Blackwood has a .897 save percentage and he has -34.04 Goals Saved Above Expected in those three seasons, ranking 55th among the 58 goaltenders that appeared in at least 3000 minutes.
The good news for Blackwood, as he tries to resurrect his career in San Jose, is that he will be competing for playing time with Kaapo Kahkonen, who ranks 56th with -41.38 Goals Saved Above Expected over the past three seasons.
Blackwood is a restricted free agent with arbitration rights, but his case is not a strong one, so there should be little difficulty in getting him signed. What is curious is that, with so many goaltenders seemingly available this summer, Blackwood is not the most inspired choice for the Sharks to address a position of glaring weakness.
The Devils Get: A sixth-round pick.
The emergence of Akira Schmid last season made Blackwood expendable, as New Jersey has a capable tandem with Schmid and Vitek Vanecek.
That the Devils are getting anything for Blackwood has to be considered a win. A sixth-round pick is only offering about a one-in-seven chance of becoming an NHL player, but for a goaltender that is well below average in a flush market, the Devils should take it.
Verdict: It’s not a big price that the Sharks paid, and San Jose might be able to get Blackwood to recapture his form, but the Devils probably get the nod for making the sharper move here.
The Avalanche Get: C/LW Ross Colton
Colton is a 26-year-old forward who can play wing and center, plays a physical game, and can contribute offensively. He has scored 33 even-strength goals in the past two seasons, the same number as Trevor Zegras, Jonathan Huberdeau, Nazem Kadri, and Patrice Bergeron.
In Colorado, Colton should have a chance to fill the third-line center spot behind Nathan MacKinnon and recently acquired Ryan Johansen.
Colton is a restricted free agent with arbitration rights, so he will expect a raise on the $1.25 million he made last season, but the Avs are likely going to be tight against the cap, so he may not be looking at a great opportunity to cash in this summer.
The Lightning Get: A second-round pick.
While a second-round pick offers a one-in-three chance of becoming an NHL player, the Lightning are taking a hit here, losing a player that has inexpensively filled a third-line role for the past two-and-a-half seasons.
Verdict: This move is a win for the Avalanche, but it shows the tight margins under which these Stanley Cup contenders are operating. The Lightning are obviously going to try to win the Cup, and still judged that don’t have the room to keep Colton. The Avalanche are also aiming to win, relatively tight to the cap, but figure that it is worth their while to bring in Colton’s experience, which includes 19 points (10 G, 9 A) in 52 playoff games, with one Stanley Cup win, and another run to the Cup Final in his first three NHL seasons.