A big NHL trade means it is time to dust off the ol’ Substack.
The Vancouver Canucks traded their captain to the New York Islanders, of all teams.
The Islanders Get: C Bo Horvat
Horvat, 27, is having the best season of his career, already tying his career high of 31 goals, which was set last season.
He is generating a career high 2.92 shots on goal per game, while scoring on a career high 21.7% of his shots. Part of that is due to his role in the bumper spot of the Vancouver power play. Horvat has scored 24 power play goals in 119 games over the past two seasons, which has him tied for 10th.
While the puck tends to move in the right direction with Horvat on the ice, his defensive impact tends to vary from year to year. His offensive performance, which includes six 20-goal seasons and five seasons with at least 50 points, is his more reliable calling card.
Horvat is also an ace on faceoffs, winning 56.6% of his draws since the start of last season.
All of this suggests that the Islanders are clearly upgrading their roster for this season, but to what end? The Islanders are two points behind the Penguins and one point behind the Sabres, but both teams have played three fewer games.
Washington is three points ahead of the Islanders in the same 52 games. Can the Horvat acquisition push the Isles into the playoffs? It’s possible, but they are fighting uphill.
The Islanders already have Mathew Barzal, Brock Nelson, Jean-Gabriel Pageau And Casey Cizikas at center, but Horvat’s presence could shift Barzal to right wing, giving him more freedom to create offensively, while giving Horvat a prime playmaker to set him up.
Horvat’s cap hit for this season is $5.5 million, but the Canucks are retaining 25 percent on the deal. More importantly, he is set to be an unrestricted free agent in the summer. Presumably the Islanders intend to sign Horvat to a new deal, but that will not come cheaply.
The Canucks Get: LW Anthony Beauvillier, C Aatu Raty, and a protected first-round pick.
Beauvillier is a 25-year-old who scored 21 goals in 2017-2018 and has not been able to duplicate that total since. He is still seeking his first 40-point season but is a capable middle six winger who is skilled enough to complement quality offensive players.
That could come in handy in Vancouver, where the Canucks are likely to make more moves and it should offer Beauvillier an opportunity to re-establish some of his value around the league.
That should be the objective for the Canucks, because Beauvillier is probably not the right age to have a long-term impact on a rebuilding team. He has one more year left on his deal with a $4.15 million cap hit, which makes him a prime candidate to get traded next season, unless he somehow reaches heights with the Canucks that never materialized in seven seasons with the Islanders.
Raty was a second-round pick in the 2021 Draft after managing six points in 31 games for Karpat in Finland’s Liiga. He bounced back the next season, though, with 41 points (13 G, 28 A) in 47 games, re-establishing his value as a prospect.
This is his first season in North America and the 20-year-old has 15 points (7 G, 8 A) in 27 AHL games to go with a couple of goals in 12 games when the Islanders called him up to the NHL. He is probably not NHL ready just yet but there is a reasonable chance that he becomes a full-fledged NHL player within the next couple of seasons.
The real prize of the deal for the Canucks is the first-round pick. It is Top 12 protected in 2023, but if the pick slides to 2024, then there is no protection and, if the Islanders fade in 2023-2024, their 2024 first-round pick could have serious value. But even if that scenario does not play out, and the Canucks end up with a Top 15 pick, that could very well yield a quality piece for their rebuild. Based on current points percentage, the Islanders would get the 13th pick, so if they improve at all, then Vancouver will get the pick in 2023.
Verdict
The Islanders’ acquisition of Horvat for this season is fine. Perhaps that price seems a tad expensive for a rental, especially for a team that is still on the outside looking in at the postseason, but for a center who has 31 goals in 49 games, it’s not unreasonable.
The bigger issue is going to be a contract extension for Horvat, when the value is almost assuredly going to be propped up by his career-high shooting percentage of 21.7%. Will Horvat still be worth $8 million per season if he is scoring on 14% of his shots, which is more in line with his career average?
As for the Canucks, they painted themselves into a corner with so many ill-advised acquisitions and contract extensions that they suddenly did not have the flexibility to keep their captain even though he is having the best season of his career.
Now that the Canucks have made the difficult decision to move Horvat, they will need to make more moves to re-shape the roster. Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes are probably safe, but just about anyone else could be fair game.
While there are no guarantees that the pieces coming from the Islanders will help turn things around in Vancouver, if Raty and the first-round pick pan out, that will at least give the Canucks some hope moving forward.
It didn’t have to be this way but, under the circumstances, this was a necessary move for the Canucks.