Goaltender Tiers/Rankings
As always, goalies are voodoo
A few injury updates and signings first but the focus of this post will be the fantasy goaltender rankings for this season.
Kucherov out for the regular season due to hip surgery
Who benefits in Tampa Bay? My pick for the biggest boost is Tyler Johnson, who the Lightning had been trying to trade and goes from potentially playing on the fourth line to maybe second-line status, presuming that Steven Stamkos could play right wing on the top line.
Blackhawks lose Dach
Second-year Blackhawks center Kirby Dach is out with a broken wrist, suffered in a pre-tournament game at the World Junior Hockey Championship. The timeline could be as long as 10-12 weeks, which would be a long time to miss in a shortened season, though since the season hasn’t started yet, Dach might actually miss closer to 7-9 weeks.
With Dach and Alexander Nylander out of the lineup, there is some shuffling for the Blackhawks. Dylan Strome should have a better chance to produce with Dach out but the Blackhawks also signed 35-year-old veteran center Carl Soderberg. Soderberg is fine, a capable veteran who isn’t going to make a massive difference but makes the Blackhawks more competitive…the question might be whether that should be their objective.
Granlund and Haula sign in Nashville
I thought Granlund would have generated a lot more interest on the free agent market, because a lot of his decline last season could be attributed to low on-ice percentages and that’s the kind of thing that we know can fluctuate from season to season. He’s a skilled forward who easily fits a second-line role for the Predators and while one year and $3.75 million isn’t much of a windfall for him, it works out pretty well for the Predators.
Haula is an okay middle-six forward at a good price, one year for $1.75 million. That depth was sorely needed in Nashville and while some might figure that this prevents a prospect like Eeli Tolvanen from making the jump, it’s fair to say that Tolvanen has some work to do in order to show that he’s ready for a scoring role in the NHL and if Nashville has designs on a playoff spot they are better off having legitimate NHLers in those roles.
Edmonton goes Koekkoek
After official word that Oscar Klefbom is out for the season, the Oilers have signed Slater Koekkoek, who was quietly effective for the Blackhawks last season. As it stands right now, Koekoek may be Edmonton’s seventh defenseman but he could be a better option than Kris Russell.
Goaltender Rankings
Let me get this out of the way first: goaltenders are the source of my greatest frustration when it comes to fantasy hockey. I tend to do pretty well forecasting skater production and that gets me in contention most of the time but it often falls on goaltenders to determine whether a team is really going to have a chance to win.
So, as unpredictable as the position may be, there are a few basics. Mostly, find a starting goaltender on a good team. That leads to wins and while wins may not be especially representative of goaltending talent, it’s obviously a factor for fantasy hockey.
The one other consideration I use is essentially a measure of confidence. How likely is the goaltender to remain the starter or does he have enough of a track record that we could at least trust his statistical performance? If you know the answers to these questions, you’ll have this figured out in no time.
Tier 1
Andrei Vasilevskiy, Connor Hellebuyck
Only a couple of guys here but they are locked in No.1 starters with strong track records. They aren’t infallible but they are the safest to expect strong numbers along with a heavy workload.
Tier 2
Tuukka Rask, Carter Hart, Igor Shesterkin, Robin Lehner
The second tier has guys who are really good, obviously, with high-end potential, but also have some risks that aren’t really there for the top-tier guys. Rask and Lehner have longer track records, though both have strong backups and don’t typically handle a heavy workload. Hart and Shesterkin are young up-and-comers but also appear secure in their starting roles.
Tier 3
Philipp Grubauer, Carey Price, Jordan Binnington, Darcy Kuemper, Frederik Andersen
By this tier there are already question marks and it becomes a beauty in the eye of the beholder situation, though these guys seem solidly in starter’s roles. Grubauer is the starter on what I expect to be the best team in the league this season. Price has great credentials and the team in front of him should be better but he has been below average in two of the past three seasons. Binnington has a year-and-a-half in the NHL. His rookie season was amazing, and led to a Stanley Cup; last season was not as consistent and it puts at least some doubt into his performance moving forward. Kuemper has emerged as a top-flight goaltender in the past few seasons but he is coming off an injury-shortened season and his team isn’t great. Frederik Andersen is coming off a down season but has an above average track record in terms of durability and performance and has a relatively strong team in front of him. Given his numbers in 2019-2020, Andersen might be a good value play.
Tier 4
Anton Khudobin, Ilya Samsonov, Jacob Markstrom, John Gibson, Tristan Jarry
Things start to get a little risky here. Some of the guys in these next tiers will surely work out and be really good. It’s just a matter of picking the right ones. Khudobin isn’t so much of a secret after his playoff run for the Stars and he does have good numbers but doesn’t have a lot of experience as a starter and the Stars may be prime for a post-Cup-run fall. Samsonov is promising but looks like he’s going to be thrust into the starter’s role with Henrik Lundqvist out. He was good as a rookie but faded even with a limited workload. Markstrom was great for Vancouver last season, and on that basis, might deserve to be ranked higher. He was about league average for the previous three seasons in Vancouver. Gibson is better than his team and that affects his fantasy value because wins don’t come so easily and, if he struggles a bit, like he did last season, the fantasy value dries up. Tristan Jarry looks like the No. 1 guy in Pittsburgh but he faded down the stretch last season and doesn’t have a track record of handling a starter’s role for a full season. Any of these guys could be really valuable in the right circumstances but beware paying too much to get them.
Tier 5
Juuse Saros, Jaroslav Halak, Pavel Francouz, Sergei Bobrovsky, Mikko Koskinen, Semyon Varlamov
At this point, these are either high-end backups or starters without a ton of security in the position. Saros should be the starter for the Predators but Pekka Rinne has a lot of equity built up with that franchise so it’s not automatic, even if Saros has been the better of the two lately. Halak is an outstanding second-string goalie, good enough to start for many teams and has a strong team in front of him. Francouz is an okay backup for a powerhouse team. Bobrovsky is a risk-reward play. Given his contract, the Panthers are obviously invested in his success and will give him a long leash but you will be forgiven if you just want to hard-pass on that option. Koskinen should be the starter in Edmonton, and I think they’re okay as a team, but they were still prepared to go with Mike Smith in the play-in round last season, so…one of the challenges of fantasy hockey is that we don’t get to make their decisions, right? Semyon Varlamov is an above average starter for a team that I don’t think is great plus he could face a challenge for playing time from highly-touted rookie Ilya Sorokin.
Tier 6
Elvis Merzlikins, Ilya Sorokin, Marc-Andre Fleury, Petr Mrazek, Mackenzie Blackwood, Corey Crawford
We are into full risk territory here, but some decent upside. Merzlikins obviously flashed talent as a rookie but there is uncertainty over who gets the No. 1 role in Columbus. Sorokin has lots of potential coming over from the KHL but who knows just how much work he will get with the Islanders. Fleury could still be a No.1 – though he struggled last season – and if he is then he will have good fantasy value. As it is, he’s set to play second fiddle to Robin Lehner and that limits his appeal. I’m not sure that Mrazek is any better than James Reimer but he appears to have the lead in the Carolina crease and I have no strong position on how the Devils are going to allocate their goaltending minutes between Corey Crawford and MacKenzie Blackwood. Blackwood might be the safer pick, given Crawford’s age and health issues but it’s probably pretty close.
Tier 7
Cam Talbot, Linus Ullmark, James Reimer, Jonathan Quick, Matt Murray, Antti Raanta, Braden Holtby, Pekka Rinne, Joonas Korpisalo
Desperation is starting to get palpable at this point. Keep your fingers crossed. Talbot does have a decent defensive team in front of him in Minnesota but his play has run hot and cold and the Wild aren’t going to win a lot. Ullmark should have an improved team in front of him but his numbers have mostly been mediocre. Reimer, I think, should challenge Mrazek for time in Carolina but that’s an uphill fight, it seems. Quick has had back-to-back seasons with below-average results but he’s a franchise legend who has a long-term contract so he gets a lot of leeway. Murray gets a fresh start in Ottawa and he probably needs one but the Sens also stink so…Raanta might be good enough to start but can’t stay healthy. Holtby has a had a long and successful career but has a .906 save percentage over the past three seasons and his new team isn’t as good as the team he’s leaving. Rinne does have a chance to play a lot for Nashville, even if I think Saros is the better option, and Korpisalo had three straight below-average seasons as a backup before turning in a respectable season last year. Can he hold the starting job ahead of Elvis?
Tier 8
Thatcher Demko, Thomas Greiss, Cal Petersen, Casey DeSmith, Devan Dubnyk, Chris Driedger
Not ideal if you’re looking in Tier 8 (or beyond) but there is some upside. Demko could take the Canucks starting job if Holtby doesn’t improve on his recent performance but, at the same time, Demko has a .906 save percentage in 37 career games, so even if you want to be encouraged by a couple of strong playoff games, keep it in perspective. Greiss could start for Detroit but what kind of value does that even offer? Petersen is an intriguing sleeper type but you just know the Kings are going to give Quick every opportunity to succeed. DeSmith isn’t great but Jarry may not be, either, and I think the Penguins as a team should be pretty good. Dubnyk has had such wide swings in his career pendulum. When he’s bad, he’s really bad, but he has had times when he’s really good. Any chance that he gives the Sharks a solid performance? Odds are against it. The final one on my list, Chris Driedger, is a 26-year-old who has played just 15 NHL games. He is also very clearly the backup to Sergei Bobrovsky. But, if Bobrovsky gets hurt or the Panthers take Officer Bobrovsky off the case, maybe Driedger would have a chance to show his stuff.
There are more goaltenders in the league, of course, but Carter Hutton, Jonathan Bernier, Malcolm Subban, and Jake Allen – sure you can have one of them if you must but you’re probably asking for trouble. Allen may not be trouble but also may not play a lot.
Engelland Retires
Vegas defenseman Deryk Engelland has retired. I’ve criticized Engelland at times in his career but it was always more about a team moving him up the depth chart to a slot where he shouldn’t have been expected to be successful – I seem to recall a time in Calgary that T.J. Brodie was out and they bumped Engelland up to play alongside Mark Giordano, which was not ideal.
What I also remember is that he stepped up in Vegas, as a leader off the ice in the wake of the shooting tragedy, but also playing a more significant role on the ice in his mid-30s. He also earned a reputation early in his career as an under the radar heavyweight contender. His dance card early in his career was littered with the likes of Colton Orr, Chris Neil, Jody Shelley, George Parros, Kevin Westgarth, Ryan Reaves – that’s not an easy way to work your way into the league but he did it and became a respectable third-pair guy. In his last five seasons, he was outshot consistently, but outscored at evens by a total of three goals.
Position-by-position rankings coming next.