The Winnipeg Jets and Columbus Blue Jackets had unhappy forwards on their rosters, players looking to get out, so they came together and made a three-player trade that gives those players a fresh start.
It was a blockbuster trade, involving two 22-year-old stars and a 23-year-old plus a draft pick.
The Jets Get: C Pierre-Luc Dubois and a third-round pick
Dubois, 22, was the third overall pick in the 2016 NHL Draft and has been a productive, play-driving center from the jump.
In his first three seasons, Dubois scored 65 goals and had strong possession results (53.1 CF%, 54.4 xGF%). He did get to start more of his shifts in the offensive zone and spent quite a bit of time in his first couple of seasons with Artemi Panarin on his wing, so Dubois isn’t solely responsible for those results. At the same time, he drove positive results last season when he had a rotating cast of wingers, with six different wingers seeing more than 200 minutes on his line.
In Winnipeg, Dubois does combine with Mark Scheifele to give the Jets a strong 1-2 pair down the middle, especially in the long run. The Jets brought in Paul Stastny ostensibly to be the second line center this season but he’s also 35 years old. Once Dubois is available to play, Stastny and Adam Lowry can slide down the depth chart.
Now the story that had been hinted around when Dubois first made his trade request was that he wanted to play in a bigger market so Winnipeg may not necessarily be the solution to that perceived issue, if that was indeed the reason that Dubois wanted to move on.
If he wanted to go somewhere that hockey was more in the spotlight then maybe Winnipeg works. Dubois’ father, Eric, is an assistant coach with the Manitoba Moose of the American Hockey League so there is at least some kind of connection to the area and the Jets franchise right now.
With Laine gone, that also could mean a steady spot in Winnipeg’s top six for Andrew Copp, at least in the near term.
Dubois has two years remaining on his current contract with a cap hit of $5 million per season, though his salary next year jumps to $6.65 million so his qualifying offer as a restricted free agent will be significant but not an issue if he plays up to expectations.
The Jets also received a third-round pick in the deal, which offers a little better than a one-in-four chance of yielding an NHL player. The pick may have been price required to get Winnipeg to retain 26% of Laine’s salary, helping to even out the cost difference.
The Blue Jackets Get: RW Patrik Laine and C/RW Jack Roslovic
Laine is a 22-year-old sniper who was the second overall pick in the 2016 Draft, one spot ahead of Dubois. In his first two seasons, Laine scored 80 goals while scoring on 18% of his shots, a lofty number that is virtually unsustainable in the National Hockey League. However, every scouting report raved about his shooting talent, which is totally legit, so it was possible to believe that Laine was the exception to the rule.
It turns out he wasn’t. Laine scored 58 goals in the past two seasons while scoring on 12.3% of his shots.
The main issue with Laine isn’t whether or not he can score. He will either be a very good scorer or an all-timer if he ends up in the right situation. The bigger concern is what he does if he isn’t scoring because his game is not considered the most well-rounded for an elite winger. In the past three seasons, Laine has a 47.4 CF%, and 44.3 xGF%, numbers that indicate he needs someone to help drive play when he is on the ice.
This may be a solvable issue, though, because an engaged Laine can be a difference maker. Witness the first game of this season. Unfortunately, he got hurt but he also scored two goals, added an assist, and came to the defense of teammate Kyle Connor. It was that kind of passionate display that could tantalize evaluators.
So there is perhaps reason to hope for a complete version of Patrik Laine, one who is a lethal threat on the power play, one who can be a physical force, using his 6-foot-5 height and reach to maximum effectiveness, and one who is driven to make the most of his considerable talents.
Laine was also reportedly not happy in Winnipeg so we will find out if Columbus is more to his liking. It probably doesn’t hurt that Jarmo Kekalainen is the Columbus General Manager. Kekalainen was the Assistant GM for Team Finland at the World Cup of Hockey in 2016 and Laine was part of that squad as an 18-year-old.
In Columbus, Laine should be their primary scoring threat and can play either wing so it will be up to the Blue Jackets to support him with players that can get him the puck consistently. At the moment, that is not a particular strength of the Blue Jackets, especially down the middle of the ice. Max Domi can distribute the puck a bit. Rookie Liam Foudy is still very young. Mikko Koivu is not. But the Blue Jackets can mix and match until they find a suitable combination that can get Laine at least three shots per game. That has to be the minimum objective.
Laine’s cap hit is $4.995-million and he is an arbitration eligible restricted free agent at the end of the season so there will likely be a substantial raise coming. We can presume that Kekalainen, who has been GM in Columbus since 2013, is not going to be blindsided by Laine’s contract expectations.
Laine is joined in the deal by Jack Roslovic, a 23-year-old Columbus native. There aren’t that many of those skating around the NHL – it’s Roslovic and the Sherwood brothers – and while that is not a driver of the decision to acquire him, it doesn’t hurt to get a local kid if he can play.
And it appears that Roslovic can play. He hasn’t had a big role in Winnipeg, though he did see more time last season, playing a career-high 14:54 per game, and the puck has tended to move in the right direction (50.2 CF%, 46.2 xGF% in the past three seasons) with Roslovic on the ice, at least relative to his Jets teammates.
In Columbus, Roslovic should fit into a middle six role. Given Columbus’ lack of depth down the middle, he might even get a shot there but he should be able to fit in a regular role in the top nine.
Roslovic signed a two-year, $3.8 million deal with Columbus upon completion of this trade.
Verdict: Three young forwards unhappy with their surroundings will get a fresh start somewhere else and both teams can be happy with the return. In Winnipeg’s case, they buy a little more time since Dubois is signed through next season and get a high-quality center. Laine might present some risks because he is so dependent on his goal production but he also has a chance to be one of the very best goal scorers of this generation so that can be worth the risk. It looks like both teams played this as well as they could under the circumstances. Neither side wanted to move out their young star for prospects and picks, so they found another young star who would offer similar value.
