Defense Tiers/Rankings

Plus Blackhawks lose Toews, Blues bring in Hoffman

I’ve also released my position-by-position fantasy hockey rankings so I thought I’d bounce around some defense tiers today but there is some activity around the NHL as teams are getting ready for camp.

TOEWS OUT

First up, Blackhawks captain Jonathan Toews has announced that he will not be ready to play at the start of the season as he deals with an unspecified medical issue that has left him feeling lethargic.

The Blackhawks weren’t likely to be good this season to begin with but now they are going to be missing their top two centres, Toews and Kirby Dach, for an indefinite period. Most teams would struggle under those circumstances but a team as thin as the Blackhawks is going to be fighting uphill. They can send out Dylan Strome, recently-signed Carl Soderberg, Lucas Wallmark, David Kampf. Ryan Carpenter and Zack Smith can fill spots if need be but that’s a group that is going to be second-best most nights.

HOFFMAN IN, SORT OF

Veteran winger Mike Hoffman has signed a PTO with the Blues, a bizarre outcome for this offseason. I ranked Hoffman No. 5 among free agents going into the offseason, second among forwards behind only Taylor Hall, and he couldn’t generate significant interest, it appears. Since 2014-2015, Hoffman has scored 169 goals, which ranks 17th in the league in that span, and his 59 power play goals ranks 10th.

Now, the PTO leaves Hoffman open to sign anywhere but the expectation is, apparently, that Hoffman will ink a one-year deal around $4M for this season.

He joins a Blues team that needs an offensive boost with Vladimir Tarasenko out of the lineup for an extended period and it kind of got lost last year that Blues centres Brayden Schenn and Ryan O’Reilly were very percentage-dependent for their production.

SENS MAKING MOVES

Hoffman’s old team, the Ottawa Senators, was busy making a couple of trades.

First, they acquired Derek Stepan from the Arizona Coyotes, sending a 2021 second-round pick to Arizona, the pick was originally Columbus’.

Stepan is a 30-year-old who plays a sound two-way game but his offense dried up last season. He is going to get a chance to play in a scoring role for Ottawa and he’s not so old that he can’t rebound offensively, especially if he gets to play with Tkachuk and/or Dadonov, two wingers who can help drive positive results. Having said all that, the big appeal to Stepan for the Senators is that he is in the final year of a contract that has a cap hit of $6.5 million but only costs the Senators $2 million since the Coyotes were on the hook for $3 million of signing bonuses.

While bringing in Stepan makes the Senators a more professional and solid team, I have at least a little concern with what this could mean for Josh Norris, the 21-year-old who came over from the Sharks in the Erik Karlsson trade and put up 61 points in 56 AHL games last season. That’s a player who should get a legit opportunity to play and not get buried at the bottom of the roster.

This doesn’t especially help the Coyotes on the ice. It helps them get under the salary cap but they have precious little centre depth, too. They’re looking at Christian Dvorak, maybe Nick Schmaltz, Johan Larsson and probably a gap unless they shift a depth winger like John Hayden into that role on the fourth line. Derick Brassard has been linked to the Coyotes and he could certainly fill a spot, though he spent more time on the wing last season. In any case, he would come relatively cheaply.

The Senators then made a deal to help the Tampa Bay Lightning, taking checking centre Cedric Paquette and depth defenseman Braydon Coburn. Coburn is a 35-year-old who has had a successful career and was a seventh defenseman for Tampa Bay last season. He’s 36 games away from 1,000 for his career. Paquette is a disturber who plays an active physical game but has yet to score 20 points in a season. He is 27 and a bona fide NHLer but, again, if it costs the Senators any playing time for a prospect, what’s the point?

If the Senators are doing this rebuild right, though, Paquette and Stepan will both be trade candidates before the deadline because centres are usually in demand and neither one figures to be a long-term answer for a rebuilding team. The Senators also picked up a second-round pick from Tampa Bay, the price for taking on a couple of contracts that helped the Lightning get under the cap so that they could sign centre Anthony Cirelli and defenseman Erik Cernak to new contracts.

PERRY TO THE HABS

35-year-old right winger Corey Perry signed with the Montreal Canadiens. His performance has dropped off dramatically in the past two seasons and even though he was a contributor in Dallas’ run to the Stanley Cup Final, producing nine points in 27 bubble games, he’s basically fourth-line depth for the Habs, if he can even fit in that role. It’s a league-minimum signing, just like Montreal’s previous addition of Michael Frolik and having legit NHL depth will make them a better team but it’s hard to envision Perry making any kind of significant contribution.

ATHANASIOU TO THE KINGS

The Los Angeles Kings have inked Andreas Athanasiou, a terrific skater who can create his own offense, and that isn’t the most common talent, but he’s poor defensively and doesn’t really make his linemates better. Signed for one year and $1.2 million, Athanasiou should be able to challenge for playing time with the Kings, a team that looks like it could have Martin Frk and Trevor Moore among the more vulnerable parts of their forward group. Athanasiou scored 30 goals for the Red Wings in 2018—2019 but fell to 11 goals last season and was outscored 65-23 at evens in 55 games with the Wings and Oilers last season. For the price, though, it’s probably a worthwhile play for the Kings.

Defense Tiers/Rankings

Tier 1

John Carlson, Victor Hedman, Roman Josi, Brent Burns

Carlson had a monster season in 2019-2020, and has 213 points in the past three seasons, with 91 on the power play. Hedman doesn’t score quite as much as the other top guys but is consistent, fills in all categories and is plus-83 in the past three seasons. Josi had a career-high 65 points last season and won the Norris Trophy. He has had more than three shots per game in each of the past four seasons. I still include Burns in this group, though if he drops another minus-22 season that will be a problem. But, he plays like a rover and has generated at least 2.99 shots per game for seven straight seasons.  

Tier 2

Dougie Hamilton, Cale Makar, Alex Pietrangelo, Jeff Petry, Shea Theodore

Hamilton has been an analytics darling for years but was on his way to a legit Norris Trophy season before breaking his leg last year. He finished with 40 points and a plus-30 in 47 games. Makar had 50 points in 57 games as a rookie and he is going to be a problem for a long time. Pietrangelo arrives in Vegas with expectations but he’s also coming off the best season of his career. Petry is often underrated because he’s not a huge scorer but is super durable and adds a ton of hits and blocks. Theodore finally hit his stride last season. The 25-year-old finished with 45 points in his last 50 (regular season plus playoff) games.

Tier 3

Torey Krug, Kris Letang, Mark Giordano, Drew Doughty, Tyson Barrie

A very veteran-laden tier. Krug will go from running Boston’s power play to running the Blues’ power play, which may be a bit of a downgrade but he will still be very good. Letang has been a big part of Pittsburgh’s power play success for years though his health tends to be a question mark. He missed eight games last season but had missed at least 10 in seven of the previous eight seasons. Giordano’s numbers took a hit last season, like all top Flames players, and he is 37, but he is one season removed from scoring 74 points and winning the Norris Trophy. Doughty’s play has declined notably in the past couple of seasons but there is still some hope that if the Kings improve around him that he will be inspired enough to play like he did previously. Barrie got off to a terrible start with the Maple Leafs but was productive once they changed coaches and gave him a spot on the power play. This season, he should be a fixture on the power play that was the league’s best last season.

Frankly, I would understand taking the young guys with potential ahead of the older guys in Tier 3 but there is some safety in taking those veteran guys whose role is firmly established. I would suggest that you wouldn’t want to be starting your defense corps after Tier 4. It’s possible to make it work but it gets more challenging.

Tier 4

Rasmus Dahlin, Miro Heiskanen, Darnell Nurse, Thomas Chabot, Ivan Provorov, Quinn Hughes

Dahlin had a great rookie season and took a bit of a step back last season. The Sabres should be improved and they need Dahlin to get back on track. Heiskanen emerged in the bubble as a dynamic playmaker for the Stars. It’s not like John Klingberg is gone but it’s probably time for Heiskanen to be the No. 1 guy on the Dallas blueline. Nurse doesn’t get prime power play minutes but scores at evens and has three straight seasons seasons with more than 300 hits plus blocks combined. Chabot is really good but needs more help around him to really take off. Provorov is now getting to QB the power play in Philadelphia. Only had to wait until his fourth season. Hughes is a star puck-moving defenseman but his peripheral stats are ridiculous – he had seven hits last season – so that’s a factor in fantasy.

Tier 5

Erik Karlsson, Shea Weber, Seth Jones, Morgan Rielly, Rasmus Ristolainen, Ryan Pulock, Zach Werenski, Neal Pionk

The risks are a little higher now. Karlsson and Weber are both impact players who have a hard time staying healthy. I like Karlsson as a bit of a sleeper candidate this season because it’s easy to write him off after what happened last season but he’s still just 30 years old and can drive play even in a down season. Jones is a weird one. A couple of years ago I was banging the drum for him to win the Norris – he finished fourth – but his play has really dropped off in the past couple of years and what are we supposed to make of that? He’s 26 so why is there such a dip in his performance? Rielly could be underrated here if he is running the Maple Leafs power play and all is clicking. Ristolainen has his problems as a defenseman but for fantasy purposes the guy stays in the lineup and gets hits and blocks; better for fantasy than real hockey. Pulock should get a shot to quarterback the Islanders’ anemic power play, Werenski could be the more offensively inclined of the Columbus defensemen and Pionk was shockingly effective in his first year in Winnipeg.

Tier 6

Ryan Suter, Jacob Trouba, John Klingberg, Mikhail Sergachev, Charlie McAvoy, Oliver Ekman-Larsson

There’s more uncertainty at this tier. Suter is still very productive but he’s soon to be 36 and it’s not like the Wild are playing firewagon hockey. Trouba was a major disappointment in his first season with the Rangers but the team should be improved and they should be invested in his success. Klingberg is still very good but may be getting surpassed on the Dallas blueline by Heiskanen. Sergachev is a good young defenseman who falls behind Victor Hedman on the Tampa Bay blueline. McAvoy could skyrocket up this chart if he’s going to quarterback the Boston power play now that Torey Krug has gone to St. Louis. McAvoy is excellent at even strength but his fantasy value would get a massive lift if he was going to be on PP1. Ekman-Larsson was shopped in the offseason and could be surpassed by Jakob Chychrun on the Arizona blueline.

Tier 7

Alexander Edler, Colton Parayko, Adam Fox, Aaron Ekblad, P.K. Subban, Jared Spurgeon, Matt Dumba, Tony DeAngelo

Getting into more No. 2 defensemen at this stage. Edler is quietly productive. He puts up points, blocks, and hits but does miss time with injuries and is in his mid-30s. Parayko is really good but Krug will quarterback the top power play and that limits Parayko’s overall appeal. Fox has a chance to jump a few tiers, depending on how power play time is allocated in New York. Fox was great as a rookie but has to contend with Jacob Trouba and Tony DeAngelo for playing time on the right side. Ekblad had a career-high 41 points last season but the Panthers power play has never been great. Subban had the worst season of his career in 2019-2020 and ought to be desperate to bounce back. Spurgeon and Dumba both have potential to put up decent point totals but it’s not easy on a team with limited offensive upside. DeAngelo had the best season of his career, scoring 53 points, but his percentages were inflated, so he’s a prime candidate for regression before considering his battle for ice time on the Rangers blueline.

Tier 8

Mattias Ekholm, Jake Muzzin, Filip Hronek, Ryan Ellis, Jaccob Slavin, Alex Goligoski, Justin Faulk, Kevin Shattenkirk

Some steadier veterans here. Ekholm and Muzzin are two well-rounded defensemen who don’t usually quarterback the power play but contribute a balanced approach. Hronek is a potential breakthrough performer depending on Detroit’s improvement. Ellis is excellent but has had big injuries in two of the past three seasons. Slavin is a durable steady player but doesn’t hit much for a defenseman. Goligoski is unspectacular but chips in offensively and blocks shots. Faulk is even a risk here. He doesn’t have the same power play role in St. Louis and he had just 16 points in 50 games last season. Shattenkirk has had some ups and downs but he’s still capable of quarterbacking a power play and could get that chance again in Anaheim.

Tier 9

Damon Severson, Erik Gustafsson, Tyler Myers, Dmitry Orlov, Ryan Graves, Esa Lindell, Duncan Keith, Jakob Chychrun

Very much into the lower tier now, hoping to mine some diamonds. Severson has some upside if Subban doesn’t rebound. Gustafsson can run a power play and his ability to move the puck should play in Philadelphia. Myers is much maligned but always seems to play a lot. Orlov isn’t a huge scorer but he’s durable and fill out the stat sheet. Graves isn’t going to be plus-40 every year but he will get hits and blocks and should have a strong plus-minus on what is probably the best team in the league. Lindell is good for hits and blocks with a plus rating., Keith is 37 but still gets power play time for the Blackhawks. The next season that he plays less than 23 minutes per game will be his first. Chychrun has been improving but he also can’t stay healthy so he’s still down here, flying under the radar for a little while longer.

Tier 10

Nate Schmidt, Brady Skjei, Josh Morrissey, Erik Cernak, Sam Girard, Sami Vatanen, Ben Chiarot, John Marino

Schmidt, Skjei, and Morrissey play a lot and accumulate stats just by virtue of that. Cernak is a big hitter but you have to sacrifice points to take him. Girard is a wonderful skater and puck mover but falls behind Cale Makar on the Avalanche blueline. Vatanen is still looking for a team but he’s a legit top-four guy. Chiarot was a revelation in Montreal last season, much more offensively inclined than he was in Winnipeg. Marino had a strong rookie campaign and a Letang injury could raise his value a lot.

Tier 11

Noah Hanifin, Devon Toews, Vince Dunn, Brandon Montour, Hampus Lindholm, Radko Gudas, Brayden McNabb, Nick Leddy, Travis Sanheim, Shayne Gostisbehere, Sean Walker, Cam Fowler, Adam Boqvist, Will Butcher, Marcus Pettersson

Most of these guys will require an injury, or two, before they have a chance at fantasy value. Gudas and McNabb are thumpers who are limited otherwise but sometimes will be worth it. Walker and Boqvist are interesting upside picks.

Again, my fantasy rankings are here.