Center tiers/rankings
Plus Chara and Brassard sign with new clubs
I have released my fantasy hockey rankings, with projected stats, here.
A breakdown of the center position by tiers:
CENTER Tiers/Rankings
Tier 1
Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, Leon Draisaitl
If the Oilers power play is as dominant this season as it was last season, McDavid and Draisaitl will again have massive point totals. MacKinnon has had more than 90 points in three straight seasons, has led the league in shots on goal in back-to-back seasons, and is plus-44 in the past three seasons. All of that and he’s playing on what could be the best team in the league. Since 2016-2017, McDavid is the top scorer in the league, followed by Nikita Kucherov, who is out for the season. In third is Draisaitl. Then it’s Patrick Kane, Brad Marchand, and MacKinnon. There’s no wrong answer here but McDavid probably has the highest ceiling of the three, so he is most right.
Tier 2
Auston Matthews, Jack Eichel, Sidney Crosby
In the four seasons that Matthews has been in the league, only Alex Ovechkin has scored more than Matthews’ 158 goals. Staying healthy has been his biggest challenge. Eichel has put up 160 points in 145 games in the past two seasons and played more than 22 minutes per game last season. He and Taylor Hall could have a huge season for the Sabres. Crosby ran into injury problems last season but had been quite durable before, playing at least 75 games for six straight seasons, and when he’s in the lineup, he can still score – he had 1.15 points per game in 2019-2020.
Tier 3
Evgeni Malkin, Mika Zibanejad, Brayden Point, Sebastian Aho, John Tavares, Aleksander Barkov, Elias Pettersson
Crosby’s running mate in Pittsburgh, Malkin is still very productive but he has missed more than a dozen games in seven of the past eight seasons. Zibanejad erupted for a career-high 41 goals in 57 games last season but even if he doesn’t score on 19.7% of his shots again, he did have a career-high 3.65 shots on goal per game and that will lead to goals. Point emerged in the playoffs as a premier performer but has 156 points in 145 games over the past two seasons, too. Aho has 149 points in 150 games in the past two seasons, with nearly three shots on goal per game. Tavares has 232 points in 227 games in the past three seasons and Barkov has 236 points in 227 games in those three seasons. Pettersson is a wonderful talent who has had some high percentages in his first two seasons and has a questionable supporting cast so I’m a little cautious in my optimism.
Tier 4
Patrice Bergeron, Mark Scheifele, Sean Couturier, Anze Kopitar, Dylan Larkin
Boston’s next captain is 35 and probably declining at this point but he also has great wingers, or at least he will once David Pastrnak returns to the lineup. Scheifele and Couturier went back-to-back in the 2011 Draft and are of similar fantasy value now. Couturier has closed the gap with his offensive development in the past three years. Kopitar is 33 and has dropped off a bit in the past couple of seasons. Probably needs more help in L.A. Same goes for Larkin in Detroit, who is on his way up, instead of on the downside, but it’s not easy for a team getting buried almost every night.
Tier 5
Mathew Barzal, Brayden Schenn, Sean Monahan, Ryan O’Reilly, Pierre-Luc Dubois (this was where Jonathan Toews was ranked)
Barzal is an really high-end talent but is more of a playmaker than goal-scorer, which is fine, but the Islanders power play is mostly inept, too, which limits Barzal’s overall production. Schenn is kind of high risk, coming off a percentage-driven scoring season in 2019-2020 but he is a rare centre that can provide hits. Monahan dropped from 82 to 48 points last season. Like Schenn, O’Reilly’s production last season was fueled by career-high on-ice percentages and that’s not likely to carry over. Dubois is still just 22 and played well in the bubble at the end of last season. I also had Jonathan Toews in this tier before news of his health problems. As it is now, it’s probably best to avoid Toews altogether until there is some clarity on his situation.
Tier 6
Nicklas Backstrom, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Bo Horvat, Brock Nelson, Logan Couture
Washington’s top two centres have similar profiles. They are pass-first point producers. Backstrom has 199 points in 222 games over the past three seasons; Kuznetsov has 207 points in 218 games. Horvat has at least 20 goals in four straight seasons, more than 50 points in three of those four seasons. Nelson has had five seasons with at least 20 goals and tallied a career-high 54 points last season. Couture had a career-high 70 points in 2018-2019 before he managed 39 points in just 52 games last season.
Tier 7
Nick Suzuki, William Karlsson, Tomas Hertl, Vincent Trocheck
The Canadiens gave Nick Suzuki a lot more responsibility in the bubble last season and he responded well. He’s always been a skilled playmaker so with opportunity he could have a chance to really take off in his second season. Karlsson isn’t likely to duplicate his 2017-2018 season, when he had 78 points, but is still good for about three points every four games. Hertl busted out with a career-high 74 points in 2018-2019 before scoring 36 points in 48 games last season. Trocheck has not been the same player since breaking his leg in November, 2018, but now has some distance from that injury and if he is scoring enough, has some sleeper fantasy value because he’s a centre who has had more than 100 hits in five straight seasons.
Tier 8
Eric Staal, Matt Duchene, Joe Pavelski, Ryan Getzlaf, Max Domi, Adam Henrique
By this tier, it’s a lot of players that have had some success in the past but they’re kind of hit and miss at this point of their careers. Staal could benefit from a fresh start in Buffalo this season. Duchene struggled in his first year with the Predators as did Pavelski in Dallas, though Pavelski did score 13 goals in 27 playoff games. Getzlaf is 35 so he doesn’t score like he used to but can chip in some power play points and he’s still good for 100-plus hits every year. Domi had a career-best season with Montreal in 2018-2019 but dropped back to more typical production last season. He gets a new opportunity in Columbus. Henrique has had five seasons with at least 20 goals, including 26 in 71 games last season.
Tier 9
Ryan Strome, Kevin Hayes, Nazem Kadri, Nico Hischier, Mikael Backlund, David Krejci
Strome had a career season in 2019-2020, thanks to Artemi Panarin. That could continue but a line shuffle would change his outlook quickly. Hayes, Kadri, and Backlund are strong supporting players but their roles don’t have as much fantasy upside. Hischier is hurt to start the season but the Devils desperately need him to continue developing as a first line centre. Krejci is 34 but gets power play time and tied a career-high with 73 points in 2018-2019.
Tier 10
Philip Danault, Jack Hughes, Ryan Johansen, Paul Stastny, Roope Hintz, Anthony Cirelli
Danault is a superb two-way centre who doesn’t have a significant power play role. Hughes struggled as a rookie but has some encouraging stats related to controlled zone exits and entries. It’s a matter of turning the chances he creates into actual goals. Johansen refuses to shoot so production dried up when percentages faded last season. Stastny is in his mid-30s but might be feeding Patrik Laine in Winnipeg. Hintz is an intriguing sleeper for a Dallas team that is likely to be missing Tyler Seguin for a good chunk of the season. Cirelli is a tremendous two-way centre who plays a big role in Tampa Bay but is not a power play threat.
Tier 11
Derek Stepan, Yanni Gourde, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Nick Schmaltz, Dylan Strome, Gabriel Vilardi
We are moving into wildcard territory here. Stepan could possibly be Ottawa’s No. 1 centre but he did struggle to generate offense in Arizona last season. Gourde and Pageau are third-line centres with some offensive upside. Pageau also hits a lot. Schmaltz was Arizona’s leading scorer last season…with 45 points. Strome may be Chicago’s No. 1 centre by default with Jonathan Toews and Kirby Dach injured. Finally healthy, Vilardi showed some promise last season. He’s worth a late-round flier.
Others: Christian Dvorak, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Marcus Johansson, Cody Glass
Dvorak should play a big role in Arizona, for whatever that might be worth. Kotkaniemi’s season was a bust last year but he finished strong in the bubble, so expectations should be higher this year. Johansson appears set to centre Minnesota’s top line, between Kirill Kaprizov and Kevin Fiala, which is a great opportunity, but who knows how long that lasts? Glass didn’t produce much in half a season with Vegas last year (12 points in 39 games) but has the pedigree of a scoring centre and has a path to the second line in Vegas if all goes right. Again, worth a late-round flier.
Big Z to D.C.
Zdeno Chara has been with the Boston Bruins since 2006, after the Ottawa Senators infamously chose to invest in Wade Redden over Chara, opening the door for Chara to become a cornerstone piece in Boston.
In 14 seasons with the Bruins, Chara played 1023 games, had 481 points, 1055 penalty minutes and was plus-240! That’s after spending his first eight years with the Islanders and Senators.
He won the Norris Trophy in 2008-2009; finished second twice, third three times, plus one fourth and one fifth. That’s eight top-five finishes in a 10-season span, from 2003-2004 (which includes his last couple of years in Ottawa) through 2013-2014.
He won the Stanley Cup with the Bruins in 2011, lost in the final in 2013 (to Chicago) and 2019 (to St. Louis). He’s also raved about as a leader. Even if Chara has lost a step, and he very clearly has, he is a significant loss for a Bruins team that already lost Torey Krug in free agency. It’s going to be sink or swim time for the kids on the Boston blueline – 2017 first-rounder Urho Vaakanainen may get a shot. It looks like he will compete with Jeremy Lauzon and Jakub Zboril for time on the left side.
In Washington, Chara signed for $795K, and can probably be used on the third pair, though that could bump Jonas Siegenthaler out of the top six. In any case, the Capitals now have excellent defensive depth.
Brassard to Coyotes
After the Arizona Coyotes traded Derek Stepan to the Ottawa Senators, word started floating around that they may be interested in Brassard, and it makes sense for them to fill a hole down the middle of the ice with a one-year, $1.2M contract for Brassard who is 33 and has clearly hit the decline phase of his career. He has played for five teams in the past three seasons and spent more time on the wing last season but Brassard should be able to fill a middle six role in Arizona, where they are perilously thin down the middle. He is probably not terribly relevant for fantasy purposes – I have projected him to score 21 points in 50 games.
Poll – Makar vs. Hedman
So, late Tuesday night, as I prepared to submit my four-player keeper list for an Experts League, I got hung up on defensemen. I have Nathan MacKinnon, David Pastrnak, and Elias Pettersson locked in as keepers so the fourth spot came down to a toss-up between Cale Makar and Victor Hedman. I put it to a poll among my followers and the results were lopsided, nearly 79% for Makar and that should be the case. He’s 22 and Hedman is 30 and while I have Hedman ranked higher this year, it’s conceivable that this could be the last season in which I have Hedman ranked higher.