Blue Jackets overhauling their blueline
Columbus makes two trades to bring in veteran defensemen Damon Severson and Ivan Provorov.
To the surprise of no one, the Columbus Blue Jackets have been aggressive about trying to improve their defense, acquiring Ivan Provorov and Damon Severson in two separate deals.
Across the past three seasons, in all situations on a per 60 minutes basis, the Blue Jackets rank 32nd in shot attempts against, 31st in shots against, 29th in expected goals against, and 32nd in goals against. Improving on those results does not require some extra special effort, but if the Blue Jackets are going to harbor hopes of reaching the playoffs next season, then they need major defensive upgrades.
With Zach Werenski limited to 13 games after requiring season-ending shoulder surgery, the leaders in ice time on the Columbus blue line last season were Andrew Peeke, Erik Gudbranson, Vladislav Gavrikov (traded to Los Angeles at the trade deadline), Tim Berni, Adam Boqvist, Gavin Bayreuther, Nick Blankenburg, Marcus Bjork, and Jake Christiansen. I didn’t make up any of those names, as far as you know.
Columbus is improving its personnel on defense with the expectation that Mike Babcock is going to be named head coach once his contract with the Toronto Maple Leafs expires on June 30. Babcock loves to have a team that grinds defensively, and last season’s Blue Jackets were a long way from being able to handle those defensive demands.
Severson should have a more positive impact for Columbus than Provorov but comes at a much greater cost.
Flyers embrace the rebuilding process.
Kings and Devils get rewarded for being proactive.
Here is a look at the two trades that ended up bringing Severson and Provorov to Columbus.
The Blue Jackets Get: D Damon Severson
Severson turns 29 this summer and is a quality right-shot defenseman who was on his way to unrestricted free agency when the Blue Jackets made a deal with Devils.
Over the past three seasons, the Devils had 55.3 xGF% with Severson on the ice during five-on-five play, the best mark among New Jersey defensemen. That rate ranked 12th among the 200 defensemen league-wide that played at least 1500 minutes. Micah’s work at Hockeyviz paints Severson in a very positive light.
Before playing 19:57 per game for the Devils last season, Severson had played more than 22 minutes per game for four consecutive seasons. He is likely to see that kind of workload in Columbus.
Severson will certainly be an upgrade for the Blue Jackets, the best right-shot defenseman on the roster, and in the short term, that should only be positive. Since he is signed to an eight-year, $50 million contract, there are long-term considerations, too, because he will be 36 by the time this contract expires.
The Devils Get: A third-round pick.
Getting anything for a player that is likely leaving via unrestricted free agency is a win. Pulling Calgary’s third-round pick from Columbus gives the Devils a one-in-four chance of getting an NHL player.
The Devils have top prospect Simon Nemec waiting in the wings for a spot on the right side of their defense next year, so that should fill the hole created by Severson’s departure at a much easier cost on the salary cap.
Verdict: Both teams get what they want out of this deal, but the Blue Jackets are the team taking on more risk, so an edge goes to the Devils. New Jersey was the only team that could sign Severson to an eight-year deal and while it is fair to wonder if it makes sense to sign him for eight years, Columbus knows that they would not prevent Severson from hitting unrestricted free agency if the offer was for five or six years.
The Blue Jackets Get: D Ivan Provorov
Provorov, 26, has eaten big minutes in his seven NHL seasons, logging 12,810 minutes, which ranks fourth among all skaters in that time, behind Brent Burns, Ryan Suter, and Drew Doughty. Accumulating minutes in and of itself is not enough to assign value to a player, so the question is whether Provorov is going to have a positive impact on the Blue Jackets. For all of the minutes that Provorov has played in Philadelphia, the past two seasons have seen the Flyers outshot and out chanced with Provorov on the ice.
Philadelphia was outscored 148-113 in the past two seasons when Provorov was on the ice during five-on-five play. There were 212 defensemen who played more than 1000 five-on-five minutes in the past two seasons and Provorov ranked 201st in that group with a goal differential of -35. He ranked 196th with an expected goals differential of -20.31.
Provorov scored a career-high 17 goals and 41 points in his second season, 2017-2018, but has not approached those totals since. His lack of offensive production does put a limit on his overall appeal, especially when his recent play does not suggest an overwhelmingly positive impact on the defensive end either.
Signed for two more years, at a cap hit of $4.725 million, Provorov is not outrageously priced if he can play a legit top-four role on the blueline for Columbus, though his actual salary is $17.125 million over the next two seasons, so in straight cash terms, he is relatively expensive. On a remodeled Columbus blueline, Provorov is going to have ample opportunity to play.
The Flyers Get: G Cal Petersen, D Sean Walker, D Helge Grans, a 2023 first-round pick from the Blue Jackets (originally the Kings), a 2024 second-round pick from the Kings, and a conditional second-round pick from Columbus in 2024 or 2025.
Petersen is a 28-year-old netminder who showed some promise early in his career but has struggled in the past couple of seasons, posting a .890 save percentage in 47 games since the start of the 2021-2022 season. He was demoted to the American Hockey League last season and finished with a .904 save percentage in 40 games for the Ontario Reign.
Petersen had allowed 20.89 goals above expected in the past two seasons, an indication that he could use a fresh start if he is going to get a chance to resurrect his career.
In Philadelphia, they already have Carter Hart, Felix Soderstrom, and Samuel Ersson competing for goaltending jobs, so Petersen is not even a lock for an NHL spot, but he comes with a $5 million cap hit for the next two seasons, so he will probably get a fair chance to at least start in the NHL.
Walker, 28, is a right-shot defenseman who returned to action last season after missing nearly all of the 2021-2022 season with a torn ACL.
Walker recorded a career high 24 points (5 G, 19 A) in 70 games in 2019-2020. That season, he averaged a career-high 18:50 time on ice per game for the Kings. Last season, Walker contributed 13 points (3 G, 10 A) in 70 games, while playing just 14:50 per game.
In Philadelphia, there will be an opportunity for Walker to earn a bigger role. He is not huge, but he will battle, and he comes with an expiring contract that has a $2.65 million cap hit, which could very well get traded again before the deadline if he has a quality season.
Grans, 21, is a right-shot defenseman who has played two AHL seasons since he was a second-round pick of the Kings in 2020. For a rebuilding Flyers team, he is worth developing for the next couple of years, in the hopes that he becomes a bona fide NHLer.
The picks are the prize of this trade for the Flyers. The 22nd pick in the draft offers a better than even chance of yielding an NHL player and a one-in-five chance of turning into a top-six forward or top-four defenseman. The Flyers also acquired two second-round picks and each of those picks typically brings a one-in-three chance of returning an NHL player.
The Kings Get: D Kevin Connauton and RW Hayden Hodgson
Connauton is a 33-year-old who has logged 360 games in the NHL, though he did not play any last season. He makes a hefty $450,000 in the AHL, so the Flyers were looking to unload that cost and the Kings were willing to take on Connauton’s AHL cost for more flexibility on their NHL salary cap. He has proven to be competent organizational depth, so if the Kings run into injuries, Connauton could get plugged into the lineup as a short-term solution.
Hodgson, 27, has played seven NHL games in his career, but is on a one-way contract in 2023-2024 that will pay him $800,000 whether he is in the NHL or the AHL. That contract can be buried in the minors without affecting the salary cap so, like Connauton, Hodgson’s contract is a price that the Kings are willing to pay in order to get more NHL cap flexibility.
The Kings already utilized some of that cap flexibility by signing defenseman Vladislav Gavrikov to a two-year contract with a $5.875 million cap hit.
Verdict: The Blue Jackets likely got the best player in Provorov, but it is hard not to like this three way deal for the Flyers. Having Provorov on the roster is not likely to make the difference between the Flyers being a playoff team or a lottery team, so maximizing their potential future value is a sensible play. The Kings were not taking as big a swing as the Flyers or Blue Jackets, but it turned out to be a tidy piece of business for them that helps them make moves for this offseason.
What do you think the projected D pairings look like next season for Colombus? I was thinking the following:
Werenski/ Severson
Provorov/ Boqvist
Bean/ Gudbranson (Babcock is 1000000% playing Gudrunson 15 minutes per
)That leaves Jiricek/Peake/Blankenburg/Berni on the outside looking in?