A new fantasy hockey/podcast plan

Hear me on Locked on Fantasy Hockey

I have started hosting the Locked On Fantasy Hockey podcast. I started hosting the Locked On Fantasy Baseball podcast in February, not long before the world went sideways, so I’m doubling up on hosting duties.

Part of the experience for hosting a fantasy hockey podcast is that this substack will be a place for written content, including my fantasy projections. I can’t very well list my top 300 projected scorers on a podcast but once the projections are posted, it becomes part of this hockey community.

There will be overlap between the podcast and the newsletter, for sure, but the bottom line for all of it is that I’m going to do my best to give you smart hockey analysis every day.

I have been writing about fantasy hockey for 20 years, and playing fantasy hockey for more than 35 years. That experience does position me as an expert in the field – it’s quite a niche – and Fantasy Ref on Twitter usually tends to grade my projections very favorably so I’ll offer some useful tips and insights throughout the fantasy hockey season.

The podcast will give you daily hits with the latest injury news, statistical trends, and lineup changes. I take a macro approach to fantasy sports in general but specifically when it comes to hockey. There will be times that I will have analysis that isn’t directly related to standard fantasy hockey categories but player and roster evaluation will always matter when trying to build a fantasy team.

Ideally, this Locked On fantasy hockey community will be a place for analysis that informs and makes us all more knowledgeable hockey fans.

Like, I love hockey. I played hockey competitively through university and had one glorious game in the Western Professional Hockey League but even as a kid the numbers of sports had a hold on me and, ever since, I have obsessed over lineups and statistics. One of my junior hockey teammates said to me once, incredulously, “Like, you would know who the right fielder for the Cincinnati Reds is?” Almost sheepishly, I said, “Yeah”, because of course it was Paul O’Neill and I’m still that guy, only now there are so many more resources at my finger tips.

I’m going to start with projections on Monday. Top scorers will go up first, then goaltenders, then fantasy rankings, and I’ll be writing and podcasting relentlessly leading up to the start of the season and then throughout the season and the playoffs. I’ll have season-long, dynasty, DFS, and handicapping tips. Some analytics, too.

COUNT THEM OUT

A couple of stars have made it clear that they won’t be taking part in the 2021 season. The most surprising news came from Washington Capitals goaltender Henrik Lundqvist, who will be sidelined with a heart condition.

Lundqvist is 38 and his play has already slipped – he’s been around average, maybe a little above in the past four seasons – but looked like he would be a wise investment for the Capitals after he was bought out of the final year of his deal with the Rangers.

Losing Lundqvist does accelerate the timeline for Capitals goaltender Ilya Samsonov, a 23-year-old who had a decent showing as a rookie in 2019-2020. With this Lundqvist news coming at this stage of the offseason there aren’t great options remaining on the free agent market, so it looks like Samsonov will be the Capitals’ starter by default, with 24-year-old Vitek Vanecek slated to be the backup. He had a .917 SV% in 31 AHL games last season, putting him ahead of Pheonix Copley, who had a .905 SV%; though Copley has a .901 SV% in 29 career games.

This is a problem for Washington. They have managed to get by with mediocre goaltending for the past couple of seasons because Braden Holtby’s performance had declined and adding Lundqvist seemed like a way to add stability to the position. Now, Washington is left with inexperienced options.

The remaining free agent goaltenders – Ryan Miller, Craig Anderson, Jimmy Howard – are all older options and may not be any better than Vanecek. So, the Capitals can forge ahead with what they have and if the goaltending really lets them down, they can seek out a trade.

Given his age, and the challenges of even attempting a comeback next season, this could be the end of the line for Lundqvist, an elite goaltender from the moment he arrived in the NHL in 2005-2006 through 2015-2016. As I noted, he’s been good since then but not to the level that he had established for more than a decade previously.

St. Louis Blues winger Alexander Steen announced his retirement. The 36-year-old had a career-low 17 points in 55 games last season and had been moved down the depth chart. He had a productive career, with his best years coming for St. Louis after he was acquired in a trade from Toronto – Steen with Colaiacovo for Stempniak – and in his time with St. Louis, Steen had two 60-point seasons and three 50-point seasons.

At his best, from 2010-2011 through 2014-2015, Steen was not only a quality offensive contributor but a dominant possession player, with 56.0 CF%, 55.6 xGF% over that five-season span.

With Steen departing, the Blues will have some options to move around the lineup. Sammy Blais, who was shuffled around a bunch in the St. Louis lineup last season could see more regular action on the third line now and while he doesn’t score much, Blais does have value in leagues that count hits – in 83 career games, he has 20 points and 263 hits so more than three per game, in limited ice time.

PANTHERS ADD DUCLAIR

The Florida Panthers found a discount scoring winger on the free agent market, signing winger Anthony Duclair who scored a career-high 23 goals in 66 games for the Senators last season.

Duclair is just 25 and the Panthers will be his sixth NHL team so he’s still trying to put down some roots. He is a capable scoring winger who also has a miserable track record defensively.

The absurdity of the Duclair signing is that it’s for just one year at a $1.7 million price. That’s a low-risk investment by Florida GM Bill Zito, who would be familiar with Duclair from their time together in Columbus, even if that wasn’t a golden time in his career.

While this seems like a depressed market for Duclair’s services, the Panthers do offer an opportunity for him to play a significant role. The highest scoring wingers on the Panthers depth chart right now are Jonathan Huberdeau, Patric Hornqvist, Brett Connolly, and Frank Vatrano. They also have prospects Grigori Denisenko and Owen Tippett pushing for jobs. Duclair did play with new Panthers center Alexander Wennberg in Columbus during the 2018-2019 season – Wennberg was his most common linemate by far. They weren’t especially good together but there is some familiarity there. In any case, and ideal world for Duclair would see him skating on Aleksander Barkov’s wing on the top line but that may not be the most likely outcome. Maybe something more along the lines of a middle six role, where maybe he could score enough to earn a longer commitment next summer.

One other signing of note and that is the Minnesota Wild inking goaltender Andrew Hammond. Now the Hamburglar is not really a factor for the NHL. He is a 32-year-old who hasn’t appeared in an NHL game since 2017-2018 and his miracle run as a rookie with the Senators was all the way back in 2014-2015. But the reason that the Wild signed Hammond is that Alex Stalock is out with an upper body injury and that Minnesota feels the need to sign a veteran for their AHL club likely means that Kaapo Kahkonen is likely going to have a role in Minnesota to start the season. Kahkonen is a 24-year-old who will back up Cam Talbot but didn’t look out of place in a handful of games for the Wild last season.

TOP 10 REMAINING UFAs

The 2020 offseason has been different, to be sure, and the oddity has left some significant names unsigned as we are presumably – hopefully – within a month of the NHL season starting. Again, making some assumption here. I mentioned the top free agent goaltenders left – there’s not much there – but there are some other players that could make a difference. Here are the Top 10 free agents left:

FLA LW Mike Hoffman

Since 2014-2015, Hoffman has scored 169 goals, which ranks 17th.

NSH RW Mikael Granlund

Granlund had three straight seasons with more than 50 points before falling to 34 points last season, pretty skilled player for a supporting offensive role.

CAR RD Sami Vatanen

Has played more than 21 minutes per game for six straight seasons, a top-four guy who can move the puck well enough to handle some PP time.

FLA LW/C Erik Haula

A useful middle six forward who scored 29 goals in 2017-2018 but that won’t be normal for him, Had 12 goals and 24 points in 48 games last season.

WSH RW Ilya Kovalchuk

The 37-year-old winger did resurrect his career a bit in Montreal last season, producing 13 points with 62 shots on goal in 22 games but faded in Washington, finishing with 5 points and 23 shots on goal in 15 regular season plus playoff games.

CGY RD Travis Hamonic

A 30-year-old right shot D who has played more than 20 minutes per game in each of his 10 seasons, Hamonic struggled last season and while he’s had some ups and downs in his career, he could still fill a top-four role alongside a puck-moving partner.

EDM RW Andreas Athanasiou

A 26-year-old who scored 30 goals in 2018-2019 but just 11 in 48 games last season, it’s understandable that the Oilers didn’t want to tender him a qualifying offer but a team that needs scoring depth should be interested. Given his style of play, and ability to create his own chances, it doesn’t matter much with whom Athanasiou plays.

LAK D Ben Hutton

Cast aside by Vancouver, Hutton was a quality third-pair option for the Kings last season. Maybe teams are more interested in giving their prospects a shot but Hutton could help a team needing legit NHL experience.

BOS D Zdeno Chara

It’s possible that the end has arrived for the 43-year-old, and he’s obviously not the player that he used to be, but he has played more than 20 minutes per game for 20 straight seasons. If he wants to play and can find the right fit, there’s a world in which Chara could still contribute.

PIT LW Conor Sheary

Production has steadily declined since 2016-2017 when he had 53 points in 61 games, skating with Crosby. He had 23 points in 63 games last season, so that’s not going to draw a ton of attention but as a third line player with some offensive ability, he’s out there.